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Primary Budget Balance, April Jobs Creation Data Scheduled

  • The Brazilian real could come under further pressure on Wednesday amid negative sentiment across global markets following the weaker-than-expected China activity data overnight. Recent USDBRL gains have resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction, however, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery and expose resistance at 5.0891, the Apr 19 high.
  • Brazil’s primary budget balance likely to show a surplus of 16.6b reais in April, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, after a deficit of 14.2b reais in prior reading. Central bank is expected to release numbers at 1230BST/0730ET:
    • April Nominal Budget Balance, est. -34.7b, prior -79.5b
    • April Public Borr. Primary DE Monthy, est. 16.6b, prior -14.2b
    • April Brazil Public Net Debt %GDP, est. 57.4%, prior 57.2%
  • Employment figures are also expected on Wednesday:
    • 1300BST/0800ET: April National Unemployment Rate, est. 8.8%, prior 8.8%
    • 1900BST/1400ET: April Formal Job Creation Total, est. 189,550, prior 195,171
  • Separately, the heads of state in Brasilia this Tuesday discussed whether their respective countries intend to negotiate with the rest of the world as a bloc or alone, said the Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a statement after a summit with South American presidents.

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