Putin Signs Order Suspending New START Nuclear Treaty Participation

Wires reporting that Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed an order officially suspending Russia's participation in the New START nuclear arms treaty. New START, which came into force in 2010, limits the US and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems apiece. This is maintained by regular inspections of nuclear sites by officials from the other nation. Given that no inspections had taken place by either nation since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, the on-the-ground impact of Russia's suspension may not be significant in the short-term.

• Neither side were near to the ceiling of deployed delivery systems, but are believed to be closer to the ceiling of permitted warheads deployed. The US is seen as having the ability to fairly rapidly double its deployment of warheads, but for Russia it is more unclear. While the US was unable to monitor deployment in recent years, Russia's participation in New START resulted in assumptions that Moscow would not exceed the deployment ceiling.
• The risk comes with both the inability to monitor deployment, and the lack of treaty requirement to limit deployment, the US could assume that Russia will begin immediately increasing its amount of deployed warheads, in turn increasing its strike force. This in turn could be seen as a risk by both Moscow and indeed Beijing, which has been growing its own warhead stockpile (still far smaller than the US' or Russia's), raising nuclear tensions between the nations.