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RBA Dated OIS Softening Hits Its Limit

STIR
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The RBA Minutes today suggested the Board was evaluating the case for a pause while acknowledging that further tightening of monetary policy would likely be required to ensure that inflation returned to target.

  • A lot of importance was placed on data (business surveys, employment, retail trade and inflation) in the run-up to the April meeting.
  • Alas, this emphasis pre-dated banking crisis concerns. Yesterday, RBA Assistant Governor Kent explicitly cited that the banking crisis, among other issues, would be considered at the April meeting.
  • With RBA-dated OIS little changed on the day despite a positive post-Minutes reaction (5-8bp softer for meetings beyond July), it appears as though the AU market has softened as far as it can go without further impetus, locally or globally.

Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Yesterday

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The RBA Minutes today suggested the Board was evaluating the case for a pause while acknowledging that further tightening of monetary policy would likely be required to ensure that inflation returned to target.

  • A lot of importance was placed on data (business surveys, employment, retail trade and inflation) in the run-up to the April meeting.
  • Alas, this emphasis pre-dated banking crisis concerns. Yesterday, RBA Assistant Governor Kent explicitly cited that the banking crisis, among other issues, would be considered at the April meeting.
  • With RBA-dated OIS little changed on the day despite a positive post-Minutes reaction (5-8bp softer for meetings beyond July), it appears as though the AU market has softened as far as it can go without further impetus, locally or globally.

Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Yesterday

Keep reading...Show less