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The RBA Minutes today suggested the Board was evaluating the case for a pause while acknowledging that further tightening of monetary policy would likely be required to ensure that inflation returned to target.
- A lot of importance was placed on data (business surveys, employment, retail trade and inflation) in the run-up to the April meeting.
- Alas, this emphasis pre-dated banking crisis concerns. Yesterday, RBA Assistant Governor Kent explicitly cited that the banking crisis, among other issues, would be considered at the April meeting.
- With RBA-dated OIS little changed on the day despite a positive post-Minutes reaction (5-8bp softer for meetings beyond July), it appears as though the AU market has softened as far as it can go without further impetus, locally or globally.
Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Yesterday
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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