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STIR: RBNZ Dated OIS Firmer Than Pre Q4 Labour Market Data Levels

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is 2–10bps firmer than pre-Q4 Labour Market data levels from last Wednesday.

  • The Q4 unemployment rate rose 0.3pp to 5.1%, aligning with both consensus expectations and the RBNZ’s forecast. This marks the highest level since the Covid-impacted Q3 2020. Employment declined 0.1% q/q, bringing the annual drop to 1.1% after a revised -0.6% in Q3. Wage growth continues to moderate, hovering around or below 3%.
  • As the data largely matched the RBNZ’s November projections—which included a forecasted 50bp rate cut in Q1 2025—another 50bp cut on February 19 remains likely.
  • Markets are pricing in 48bps of easing for February, with a total of 120bps expected by November 2025.

 

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RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is 2–10bps firmer than pre-Q4 Labour Market data levels from last Wednesday.

  • The Q4 unemployment rate rose 0.3pp to 5.1%, aligning with both consensus expectations and the RBNZ’s forecast. This marks the highest level since the Covid-impacted Q3 2020. Employment declined 0.1% q/q, bringing the annual drop to 1.1% after a revised -0.6% in Q3. Wage growth continues to moderate, hovering around or below 3%.
  • As the data largely matched the RBNZ’s November projections—which included a forecasted 50bp rate cut in Q1 2025—another 50bp cut on February 19 remains likely.
  • Markets are pricing in 48bps of easing for February, with a total of 120bps expected by November 2025.

 

Keep reading...Show less