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Regional Fed Mfg Delivery Times Hold In Goldilocks Zone

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  • With today’s Dallas Fed survey completing the set, the five regional Fed manufacturing surveys showed a continued moving sideways of supplier delivery time indices in January.
  • The average -3.8 in January nudged up from -6.9 in Dec but is little changed from 2H22 levels, as implied delivery times continue to edge lower each month after substantial increases earlier in the year when supply bottlenecks were most pronounced.
  • This is likely a sign of softer inflationary pressures on a combination of improved supply chains and potentially moderating demand, but without reporting the heavy declines seen in 2008-09 at the last notable downturn – see chart.

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  • With today’s Dallas Fed survey completing the set, the five regional Fed manufacturing surveys showed a continued moving sideways of supplier delivery time indices in January.
  • The average -3.8 in January nudged up from -6.9 in Dec but is little changed from 2H22 levels, as implied delivery times continue to edge lower each month after substantial increases earlier in the year when supply bottlenecks were most pronounced.
  • This is likely a sign of softer inflationary pressures on a combination of improved supply chains and potentially moderating demand, but without reporting the heavy declines seen in 2008-09 at the last notable downturn – see chart.