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US DATA: Regional Fed Mfg Surveys Point To Sizeable ISM Mfg Upside Risk

US DATA
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  • The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey rounded out the five regional Fed reports for January, with the five on balance seeing a sequential improvement.
  • The Richmond mfg index beat expectations as it increased to -4 in Jan (cons -10) from -10 in Dec for a further improvement away from the low of -21 in September. It’s now the least negative since May.
  • New orders painted a broadly similar story, at -4 after -11 although that was its least negative since Oct 2023.
  • Looking more broadly, three of the five regional Fed indices saw improvements in January, whilst Kansas held steady for roughly a fourth consecutive month and Empire gave back some of its prior gains.
  • Philly clearly stood out though, surging from -10.9 to 44.3 for the highest since the 44.4 in Apr 2021 and before that 1984.
  • That biased the unweighted average of the five series firmly higher, rising from -3.9 to +7.4 for its first positive reading since May 2022.
  • Taken directly, it points to an ISM manufacturing reading comfortably in the 50s at would be a sizeable beat, currently expected at 48.9 in Jan after 49.2 (released next Monday). However, the localized nature of regional strength suggests caution is needed. 
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  • The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey rounded out the five regional Fed reports for January, with the five on balance seeing a sequential improvement.
  • The Richmond mfg index beat expectations as it increased to -4 in Jan (cons -10) from -10 in Dec for a further improvement away from the low of -21 in September. It’s now the least negative since May.
  • New orders painted a broadly similar story, at -4 after -11 although that was its least negative since Oct 2023.
  • Looking more broadly, three of the five regional Fed indices saw improvements in January, whilst Kansas held steady for roughly a fourth consecutive month and Empire gave back some of its prior gains.
  • Philly clearly stood out though, surging from -10.9 to 44.3 for the highest since the 44.4 in Apr 2021 and before that 1984.
  • That biased the unweighted average of the five series firmly higher, rising from -3.9 to +7.4 for its first positive reading since May 2022.
  • Taken directly, it points to an ISM manufacturing reading comfortably in the 50s at would be a sizeable beat, currently expected at 48.9 in Jan after 49.2 (released next Monday). However, the localized nature of regional strength suggests caution is needed. 
image