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Richer After Jobs Report, Next Key Release Is Wednesday’s Q1 CPI

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ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +8.0) are 2-4bps richer after the release of the Employment Report for March. Employment fell 6,585 m/m (estimate +10.0k) in March versus a revised +117.6k in February. The Jobless rate rose to 3.8% (3.9% est) from 3.7% in February.

  • Employment growth slowed to 2.7% y/y in Q1 from 3.0% in Q4 – the RBA is forecasting 2.0% for Q2. Job creation rose in Q1 with 122.3k new positions after Q4’s 52.9k but below Q1 2023’s 157k.
  • Hours worked posted their second straight increase in March to be marginally higher on the quarter and up 1.7% y/y with the strength again concentrated in FT. Underemployment fell 0.1pp as a result.
  • Overall, today's data showed that the labour market remained tight, so the RBA’s stance is unlikely to change.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-8bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp higher at -27bps.
  • Swap rates are 5-8bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1to +7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-5bps softer for meetings beyond September. A cumulative 17bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty. The next key release is Wednesday’s Q1 CPI.
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ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +8.0) are 2-4bps richer after the release of the Employment Report for March. Employment fell 6,585 m/m (estimate +10.0k) in March versus a revised +117.6k in February. The Jobless rate rose to 3.8% (3.9% est) from 3.7% in February.

  • Employment growth slowed to 2.7% y/y in Q1 from 3.0% in Q4 – the RBA is forecasting 2.0% for Q2. Job creation rose in Q1 with 122.3k new positions after Q4’s 52.9k but below Q1 2023’s 157k.
  • Hours worked posted their second straight increase in March to be marginally higher on the quarter and up 1.7% y/y with the strength again concentrated in FT. Underemployment fell 0.1pp as a result.
  • Overall, today's data showed that the labour market remained tight, so the RBA’s stance is unlikely to change.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-8bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp higher at -27bps.
  • Swap rates are 5-8bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1to +7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-5bps softer for meetings beyond September. A cumulative 17bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty. The next key release is Wednesday’s Q1 CPI.