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Scotiabank on Peru Politics/Protests

PERU
  • On the one hand, the violence of the protests, including deaths, and their degree of organization and, apparently, financing, suggests that they represent a real threat to institutional stability.
  • At the same time, the degree of violence may also be amplifying the true magnitude of the protests. The protests can only be called massive in the Puno region. They have been sporadic and limited in other parts of the South, and practically non-existent in the Central Peru, including Lima, and in the North.
  • At least 80% of the country is learning about the protests from the press, not due to local experience. The threat that the protests pose resides in their violence, and the government’s response to them, not in their size or spread—so far, at least.
  • Given the type of radical leadership behind the protests, more noise and potential violence could be expected. The question is whether it will break out from the southern region of the country or not.
  • The Boluarte government is viewed by many as a weak government, given that it has no political party backing it, in or outside of Congress. But, it does have the backing of the country’s institutional apparatus, which, as the failure of ex-President Castillo to pull off his coup attempt in December suggests, is an important backing to have.
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