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STIR: Bulk Of US Steepening Held Ahead Of FOMC Decision

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates sit up to 1.5bps lower overnight out to mid-2025 but mostly hold the post-election steepening with today’s FOMC decision eyed.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 25bp Nov, 43bp Dec, 53bp Jan and 90bp June (vs 99bp pre-election).
  • That profile sees most of the easing cycle enacted by June, with SOFR implied yields bottoming out at ~3.80% in H6-U6 contracts for a little over 100bps of cuts from today.
  • Labor data are watched in the interim today, with weekly jobless claims and productivity/ULCs for Q3, the latter after strong productivity growth in Q2 and a recent dovish surprise from the ECI.
  • MNI Fed Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Nov2024_With_Analysts_d4a81c3019.pdf

 

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  • Fed Funds implied rates sit up to 1.5bps lower overnight out to mid-2025 but mostly hold the post-election steepening with today’s FOMC decision eyed.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 25bp Nov, 43bp Dec, 53bp Jan and 90bp June (vs 99bp pre-election).
  • That profile sees most of the easing cycle enacted by June, with SOFR implied yields bottoming out at ~3.80% in H6-U6 contracts for a little over 100bps of cuts from today.
  • Labor data are watched in the interim today, with weekly jobless claims and productivity/ULCs for Q3, the latter after strong productivity growth in Q2 and a recent dovish surprise from the ECI.
  • MNI Fed Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Nov2024_With_Analysts_d4a81c3019.pdf