January 08, 2025 01:04 GMT
AUSTRALIA DATA: Too Early To Tell If Downtrend In Core Inflation Has Resumed
AUSTRALIA DATA
While November headline inflation picked up 0.2pp to 2.3% y/y, the focus is on trimmed mean given current state & federal electricity rebates and this underlying measure eased 0.3pp to 3.2%, where it was in September. However, the RBA continues to focus on quarterly CPI data and it wants to be confident that inflation will return sustainably to the band. It is too early to tell if monthly inflation is trending lower again, thus attention will be firmly on Q4 CPI on January 29.
Australia monthly CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- Domestically-driven services prices were updated in November and they moderated to 4.2% y/y, the lowest since April, down from 4.8%. The series is a bit volatile and November was in line with the 2024 average but 3-month momentum has been trending lower since June. Non-tradeables rose to 3.2% y/y from 3.0% but below September’s 3.5%.
- Goods inflation remained subdued at 0.8% y/y but up from 0.1% in October with tradeables up 0.1pp to 0.6% y/y. RBA Governor Bullock warned previously that the disinflationary impact from goods prices is probably done.
- The timing of electricity rebate payments contributed to the pickup in headline inflation. The ABS said that prices fell 21.5% y/y in November after -35.6% y/y. Excluding all subsidies, electricity would have been down 1.7% y/y.
- Petrol prices put less downward pressure on headline inflation in November falling 10.2% y/y after -11.5%, and they posted their first monthly rise since June.
- Rents increased 6.6% y/y after 6.7%, as the market remains tight. New dwelling inflation eased to 2.8% y/y from 4.2%, the lowest since July 2021. The ABS notes that builders are offering deals to attract customers.
- Food & non-alcoholic beverages rose 2.9% y/y down from 8.5% in October.
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