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NBP: Tracking The Evolution Of NBP Sentiment

NBP
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News
  • The NBP last week chose to uphold the hawkish tone of its post-MPC communique, while introducing a number of tweaks to the statement and signalling the end of detailed forward guidance. This prompts us to revisit the question of how to analyse the evolution of the panel's collective view over time in a consistent manner.
  • The purpose of this article is not to reconstruct the trajectory of the NBP’s self-declared bias over time, but rather to map out available sources and interpretive approaches that the reader can use for their own purposes. To that effect, we focus on several specific examples of ways in which NBP sentiment can be tracked over time and offer some background information that can be useful in interpreting Polish central bank’s rhetoric.
  • See the full article here: Tracking The Evolution Of NBP Sentiment.pdf

 

image
Dovish-hawkish scores of MPC members in "PAP Consensus" surveys over time. Tyrowicz and Duda were not members of the MPC in June 2022. The red line represents the average score for all sitting MPC members. The bars represent standard deviations (secondary vertical axis). Note that the survey is not conducted in regular time intervals, but this is this is ignored in chart design for simplicity. The latest poll was taken on December 17-20, after the Governor's hawkish pivot at his final post-MPC presser of 2024. Source: Biznes PAP/MNI – Market News.
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  • The NBP last week chose to uphold the hawkish tone of its post-MPC communique, while introducing a number of tweaks to the statement and signalling the end of detailed forward guidance. This prompts us to revisit the question of how to analyse the evolution of the panel's collective view over time in a consistent manner.
  • The purpose of this article is not to reconstruct the trajectory of the NBP’s self-declared bias over time, but rather to map out available sources and interpretive approaches that the reader can use for their own purposes. To that effect, we focus on several specific examples of ways in which NBP sentiment can be tracked over time and offer some background information that can be useful in interpreting Polish central bank’s rhetoric.
  • See the full article here: Tracking The Evolution Of NBP Sentiment.pdf

 

image
Dovish-hawkish scores of MPC members in "PAP Consensus" surveys over time. Tyrowicz and Duda were not members of the MPC in June 2022. The red line represents the average score for all sitting MPC members. The bars represent standard deviations (secondary vertical axis). Note that the survey is not conducted in regular time intervals, but this is this is ignored in chart design for simplicity. The latest poll was taken on December 17-20, after the Governor's hawkish pivot at his final post-MPC presser of 2024. Source: Biznes PAP/MNI – Market News.