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Tsy Refunding (1/2): Sizes Unch, But Path Ahead "Very Uncertain"


The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding announcement contained few surprises, though that was largely expected - and there was little market reaction.

  • The main immediate upshot from Refunding is that there will be no changes to auction sizes in the Feb-Apr quarter.
  • That was the recommendation of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in their letter to the Secretary (though their recommendation to increase the 5Y TIPS new issue size in April by $1B "as a means of gradually increasing the TIPS share of outstanding debt" was not heeded, with all TIPS sizes to be maintained).
  • MNI's expectation (aligned with consensus) is that coupon sizes will not change through at least through the first half of 2023, and probably longer, especially given the ongoing uncertainty from the debt limit crisis.
  • As TBAC noted, "coupon sizes might need to increase late this year, though the timing is very uncertain."
  • Anticipated auction sizes for the upcoming quarter are below.

Source: US Treasury, MNI

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