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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI US CPI Preview: Setting The Tone For 2025
MNI ASIA MARKETS OPEN: NY Fed Inflation Expectations Gaining
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Tsy Ylds Drift Higher Ahead CPI/PPI
Tsy Yields Retreat After FOMC Leave Rates Steady
- Tsy futures near highs after the bell, Dec'23 10Y at 107-00.5 vs. 107-04 high(+30.5), 10Y yield -.1693 to 4.7614% after the FOMC left rates unchanged for the second consecutive time, stocks higher as well as market take away is the Fed is farther along the hiking path.
- While discussing whether every meeting is "live", Chairman Powell said "we are going meeting by meeting, asking ourselves whether we achieved a stance of policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down 2% over time" - "we have come very far with this rate hiking cycle, very far."
- Projected rate hikes into early 2024 continue to step down: December cumulative of 4.8bp at 5.373%, January 2024 cumulative 7.3bp at 5.398%, while March 2024 starts pricing in a cut (20.3%) with cumulative at 2.6bp at 5.350%. Fed terminal has slipped to 5.385% in Feb'24.
- Projected rate hikes into early 2024 continue to step down: December cumulative of 4.8bp at 5.373%, January 2024 cumulative 7.3bp at 5.398%, while March 2024 starts pricing in a cut (20.3%) with cumulative at 2.6bp at 5.350%. Fed terminal has slipped to 5.385% in Feb'24.
- Busy first half saw Treasury futures turn higher after lower than expected ADP private jobs data (113k vs. 150k est, 89k prior). Futures bounced again after nominal Tsy refunding hikes ($112B vs. $114B estimate).
- Tsy futures surged higher yet again after weaker than expected ISM data: Mfg (46.7 vs. 49.0 est), Employ (46.8 vs. 50.6 est), New Orders (45.5 vs. 49.8 est) and Prices Paid (45.1 vs 45.0 est).
- Meanwhile, Construction Spending MoM (0.4% vs. 0.4% est, prior up-revised to 1.0 from 0.5%) while JOLTS Job Openings firmed (9.553M vs. 9.400M est, prior down-revised to 9.497M from 9.610M).
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.