European gas opens slightly higher with weather forecasts suggesting a return towards normal temperatures in NW Europe in the second half of January. A short period of slightly below is forecast in some areas such as the UK.

• TTF FEB 23 up 2% at 71.5€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 up 1.1% at 74.2€/MWh
• Storage levels remain high with only small storage withdrawals. Concern for the ability to replenish EU stock levels during the upcoming summer is supporting the Sum23 contract above the front month.
• Risks to supply are limiting the downside with spreads favouring LNG spot diversions to Asia but high terminal storage levels in Asia, weak Chinese demand and warm weather in Japan are limiting the impact.
• European storage is lower today at 82.83% but still high compared to the seasonal normal of 66%.
• LNG supplies into Europe were around 350mcm/d on 8 Jan, Norwegian imports are today nominated at 340mcm/d and Ukraine transit gas flows are 35.5mcm/d.