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TTF Rises Amid Cooler Weather and LNG Supply Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF rises amid a cooler European weather forecast towards the end of the month and with concerns for LNG supply disruption due to middle East tensions. Shipping risk is in focus after Houthi Rebels seized a Japanese chartered vessel in the Red Sea on Sunday although Iran have denied any role according to Bloomberg.

    • TTF DEC 23 up 4.2% at 46.95€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 4.6% at 48.74€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 4.4% at 47.47€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 3.6% at 50.95€/MWh
  • Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to cool by the end of the week with the risk of below normal into next week and at the start of December.
  • European LNG sendout was up at 447mcm/d on 17 Nov with supplies the NW Europe at the top of the five year range and in line with volumes seen this time last year.
  • Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is up at the highest since 2020 at 352.6mcm/d today compared to an average of 338mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European natural gas storage is still high up at 98.94% full on Nov 18 after smaller than normal withdrawals according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 88.6%.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 40.6mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today at 52.7mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes dip on Friday to 195k yesterday.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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