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UK DATA: CPI as close to consensus as possible; little impact for MPC

UK DATA
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Looking at some of the drivers there was a decent downside contribution from accommodation services - which had been one of the main potential upside risks here. Note that the survey date was 13 August (so didn't coincide with a Swift concert).

  • Air fares was the largest upside driver - rising 11.87%Y/Y vs -10.36%Y/Y in July (after the July print was strongly impacted by an earlier survey date).
  • As expected fuel prices were a downside contributor.
  • Food prices were a bit softer than expected and core goods rose more than expected (the two largely balancing out their impacts on headline CPI).
  • Within core goods second hand cars and furniture were solid but clothing prices were soft.
  • Within services airfares and accommodation largely cancelled each other out in terms of impact, but there was an upward contribution from "Cinemas, theatres and concerts" which may be a Taylor Swift impact (note that concert prices are averaged across the month rather than just taken on survey day). Communication was softer than expected, too.
  • Overall, this is as close to consensus as we have had for some time with a UK inflation reading so should have little impact on the MPC decision tomorrow - or in the medium-term.
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Looking at some of the drivers there was a decent downside contribution from accommodation services - which had been one of the main potential upside risks here. Note that the survey date was 13 August (so didn't coincide with a Swift concert).

  • Air fares was the largest upside driver - rising 11.87%Y/Y vs -10.36%Y/Y in July (after the July print was strongly impacted by an earlier survey date).
  • As expected fuel prices were a downside contributor.
  • Food prices were a bit softer than expected and core goods rose more than expected (the two largely balancing out their impacts on headline CPI).
  • Within core goods second hand cars and furniture were solid but clothing prices were soft.
  • Within services airfares and accommodation largely cancelled each other out in terms of impact, but there was an upward contribution from "Cinemas, theatres and concerts" which may be a Taylor Swift impact (note that concert prices are averaged across the month rather than just taken on survey day). Communication was softer than expected, too.
  • Overall, this is as close to consensus as we have had for some time with a UK inflation reading so should have little impact on the MPC decision tomorrow - or in the medium-term.