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EMISSIONS: UK ETS Surplus to Drop From 2026, Lifting Carbon Prices

EMISSIONS

The UK ETS surplus is expected to drop from 2026, before being fully exhausted by 2030, as the total annual supply and emissions start to decline, according to BNEF latest note.

  • The surplus will rise to an all-time high at 70mn allowances in 2025, compared with the near 60mn allowances in 2024, before steadily declining to deficit by 2030.
  • The decrease in surplus is expected to lift prices as the UK ETS surplus has been weighing on carbon prices since 2021.





     

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The UK ETS surplus is expected to drop from 2026, before being fully exhausted by 2030, as the total annual supply and emissions start to decline, according to BNEF latest note.

  • The surplus will rise to an all-time high at 70mn allowances in 2025, compared with the near 60mn allowances in 2024, before steadily declining to deficit by 2030.
  • The decrease in surplus is expected to lift prices as the UK ETS surplus has been weighing on carbon prices since 2021.





     

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