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UK DATA: UK Retail Sales Due at 07:00GMT

UK DATA
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  • The Bloomberg consensus looks for a marginal rise in November for retail sales both excluding and including fuel of 0.5% M/M (the former fell 0.9% and latter fell 0.7% in October - the first negative readings since June 2024). Analyst estimates are wide ranging for both with ex fuel estimates ranging from -1.4% to 1.0% and inc fuel estimates between -1.2% and 1.0% M/M.
  • The BRC survey (which matches survey dates with the ONS) saw weakness, noting the exclusion of key Black Friday dates in this year's survey period as being a driver of the subdued print (the data covers only 27 October - 23 November), therefore placing downside risk to the consensus view for the ONS official print. The CBI data also points to weakness.
  • Possibly partly offsetting this weakness in November and stimulating shopping footfall is below average rainfall levels in November (according to the Met Office) combined with the October half term falling in the November data coverage period, though Storm Bert disruptions began on 23 November.
  • On an annual basis, ex fuel retail consensus looks for an increase of 0.9% Y/Y, a significant moderation from 2.0% in October, and for inc fuel retail sales to rise 1.0% Y/Y (down from 2.4% in October).
  • Note, given some of the boost in sales driven by Black Friday Sales will be included in the December data, December's sales will be artificially inflated (when compared to December 2023 which did not include Black Friday sales). As always with the timing of Black Friday varying we tend to prefer to look at total retail sales over November and December combined to get a better gauge of the state of consumption.
  • We normally don't place much weight on retail sales (and we don't think the MPC does either) due to the volatile nature of this release and the risk of a large downside surprise due to Black Friday effects is even more elevated in this print.
  • Any big surprises still have the potential to be market moving, but we would fade a downside surprise.
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  • The Bloomberg consensus looks for a marginal rise in November for retail sales both excluding and including fuel of 0.5% M/M (the former fell 0.9% and latter fell 0.7% in October - the first negative readings since June 2024). Analyst estimates are wide ranging for both with ex fuel estimates ranging from -1.4% to 1.0% and inc fuel estimates between -1.2% and 1.0% M/M.
  • The BRC survey (which matches survey dates with the ONS) saw weakness, noting the exclusion of key Black Friday dates in this year's survey period as being a driver of the subdued print (the data covers only 27 October - 23 November), therefore placing downside risk to the consensus view for the ONS official print. The CBI data also points to weakness.
  • Possibly partly offsetting this weakness in November and stimulating shopping footfall is below average rainfall levels in November (according to the Met Office) combined with the October half term falling in the November data coverage period, though Storm Bert disruptions began on 23 November.
  • On an annual basis, ex fuel retail consensus looks for an increase of 0.9% Y/Y, a significant moderation from 2.0% in October, and for inc fuel retail sales to rise 1.0% Y/Y (down from 2.4% in October).
  • Note, given some of the boost in sales driven by Black Friday Sales will be included in the December data, December's sales will be artificially inflated (when compared to December 2023 which did not include Black Friday sales). As always with the timing of Black Friday varying we tend to prefer to look at total retail sales over November and December combined to get a better gauge of the state of consumption.
  • We normally don't place much weight on retail sales (and we don't think the MPC does either) due to the volatile nature of this release and the risk of a large downside surprise due to Black Friday effects is even more elevated in this print.
  • Any big surprises still have the potential to be market moving, but we would fade a downside surprise.