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Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises in September


Swedish September SA unemployment rate was 8.1% (vs 7.7% cons; 8.1% prior - revised up from 8.0%).

  • Consensus had predicted that the rise in the unemployment rate in August was largely temporary, and would partially reverse this month. Today's data shows that the loosening of the Swedish labour market may be a more persistent trend in response to a weakening economic outlook.
  • The Riksbank's expectation for the SA unemployment rate was 7.28% in Q3 and 7.56% in Q4.
  • Looking at seasonally adjusted and smoothed data: the unemployment rate rose to 7.8% (vs 7.7% prior), while the employment rate was constant at 69.6%.
  • Overall, the data adds another layer of deliberation to the Riksbank's November meeting, given the data-dependent stance signalled in September and the stronger-than-expected inflation last week. The outcome of the November inflation and labour market releases will be key.
  • EURSEK and NOKSEK saw a small upticks following the release, but the SEK is broadly unchanged against the G10 today.
  • At 0930BST/1030CET, the Riksbank releases data for the second week (w/c 2 Oct) of its FX hedging programme.

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