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All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

Latest insights

The NBP is expected to stand pat on the reference rate in June but may discuss changing reserve requirement parameters.

May-16 07:56

MNI discusses the BOJ's policy strategy with a former board member.

May-16 07:21

MNI discusses the RBA's next upcoming rates call.

May-16 07:08

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes from the Asia Pac region.

May-16 05:44

A European business leader gives insight into a potential restart to trade agreement talks with Beijing.

May-16 01:30

MNI discusses the RBNZ's future moves with former Reserve economists.

May-16 00:52

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FI Market Analysis

Trade developments and expectations of further deals very much set the tone this week ahead of key weekend talks

May 09, 2025 06:48

The EU looks to hold a syndication while the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Portugal all look to hold auctions.

May 09, 2025 02:58

A weekly wrap of some of the key themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region.

May 09, 2025 05:50

Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected.

May 08, 2025 01:51

FX Market Analysis

A weekly wrap of some of the key themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region.

May 09, 2025 05:50

Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected.

May 08, 2025 01:51

The Riksbank held rates at 2.25% as unanimously expected, and introduced a very slight dovish tilt to its guidance.

May 08, 2025 01:45

GBP STIRs are little changed this morning, looking through the previously covered Chinese policy easing announcement and reports pointing to the U.S. and UK nearing a trade accord. * SONIA futures flat to +1.5. * BoE-dated OIS is within 1bp of yesterday's closing levels, showing 95bp of cuts through year-end. A reminder that ~88.5bp of cuts were priced through year-end early yesterday after over 100bp of easing was priced over the same horizon last week. * The next 25bp cut is still fully discounted come the end of tomorrow's decision. * An outcome other than a 25bp cut would be surprising but there will be a number of things to watch: any changes to the guidance and the inflation/growth forecast changes, the vote split and the introduction of new scenarios. * For the guidance we expect "restrictive" and "careful" to remain but we question whether "gradual" will be removed and talk through the rationale for this potential change. * On the vote split, consensus expects 8-1 but neither Dhingra nor Mann dissenting for a 50bp cut would be a huge surprise. Taylor or Ramsden are plausible possible dissenters that would be more noteworthy - and any other member voting for a 50bp cut or for Bank Rate on hold would be a huge surprise. * Click for our full preview: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Bo_E_Preview_May25_cdd10a1afe.pdf. * Expect macro news flow and cross-market moves to dominate between now and the BoE decision, with little of note on the UK calendar in that period. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) May-25 4.200 -25.9 Jun-25 4.064 -39.5 Aug-25 3.861 -59.9 Sep-25 3.721 -73.9 Nov-25 3.560 -89.9 Dec-25 3.510 -94.9

May 07, 2025 06:51