US DATA
For services, core was exactly as expected at 0.35%, and basically unchanged from September (0.35%). However, supercore (core services ex housing) came in on the soft side at 0.31% vs 0.39% expected, 0.40% prior. The key factors that help explain the in-line services but the softer supercore:
- Owners' Equivalent Rents and Primary Rents came in above expected, at 0.40% (0.33% expected, 0.33% prior) and 0.30% (0.28% expected, 0.28% prior) respectively. The magnitude of these surprises is not significant although overall it seems these categories are steadying out in the 0.3-0.4% M/M area.
- The supercore softness was largely down to volatile categories: lodging prices failed to rebound as much as expected (0.4% vs 1+% expected, -1.9% prior), while auto insurance surprisingly deflated (-0.1% vs 0.8% expected, 1.2% prior).
- Airfares unexpectedly accelerated to 3.2% (3.2% prior but a little lower unrounded; 0.7% expected).
- Meanwhile medical care services softened to 0.4% from 0.7% in September. Some had seen an acceleration in October, also helping explain part of the softness in supercore versus expectations.
- Health insurance was non-volatile despite the the semi-annual data benchmarking taking place this month - rising 0.5% M/M vs 0.4% prior.
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