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US TSYS: Curves Bull Steepen After Mixed PPI. UofM Sentiment Miss

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are trading near session highs after the bell, curves steeper after this morning's mixed PPI results where month-over-month eased vs higher year-over-year metrics.
  • Some of the main PPI categories that feed into core PCE calculations saw an acceleration in M/M terms in September, adding 0.06pps to core PCE vs an upward revised 0.03pp in Aug (had been 0.00pp).
  • Upward revisions to August could mean a more notable upside surprise for Y/Y figures though, potentially seeing some upside risk to the recently downward revised median FOMC forecast of 2.6% for core PCE inflation in 4Q24 (lowered from 2.8% in the June SEP).
  • Meanwhile, U.Mich consumer sentiment disappointed in the preliminary October release, falling to 68.9 (cons 71.0) after 70.1 in September. It leaves sentiment at one of the lower levels seen this year but well within post-pandemic ranges.
  • Treasuries gradually extended highs in the second half, while projected rate cuts have gained slightly vs. this morning's pre-data levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -22.7bp (-21.4bp), Dec'24 -45.1bp (-44.6bp), Jan'25 -65.4bp (-64.4bp).
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