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USDCAD remains below the 20-day EMA and maintains a bearish tone as the reversal from 1.3977, Oct 13 high, extends. Support at 1.3503, the Oct 4 high, has been pierced. Note that the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.3462. Clearance of these two chart points (a key support zone) would signal scope for a deeper pullback. The broader trend direction is up and the pullback is considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is 1.3855, Oct 21 high.
AUDUSD is trading closer to this week’s highs. The outlook is bullish following the reversal from 0.6170, the Oct 13 low. The focus is on 6547, Oct 4 high and the 50-day EMA, a key short-term hurdle that intersects at 0.6550. A break of this EMA would strengthen current bullish conditions. Note that gains are still considered corrective and the broader trend direction remains down. Initial support to watch lies at 0.6401, the 20-day EMA.
According to Real Clear Politics, the Republican Party now has a lead of 2.6% on the generic Congressional ballot. A lead similar to one maintained by the GOP before the Supreme Court decision in June to overturn Roe v Wade prompted a shift in the political environment in favour of Democrats.
Figure 1: Generic Congressional Ballot (RealClearPolitics)
Figure 2: Chances of Controlling the House, Over Time % (FiveThirtyEight)