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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PHP
USD/PHP is holding lower, last in the 58.05/10 region. This puts us back close to the 50-day EMA (see the chart below). We are already sub the 20-day EMA (back above 58.50).
- Since the start of Dec, PHP is comfortably the best EM Asia FX performer, up around 0.90%. USD/PHP is also down from a record high test above the 59.00 level as well.
- It may be that Q4 seasonals are finally starting to turn more positive for PHP, on the back of year end remittance inflows. Still, if history is a guide, Oct and Nov tend to see stronger PHP gains.
- The roll over in USD/PHP has also coincided nicely with a retracement in US real yield levels. Since the mid Nov peak, the real 10yr yield is off around 20bps.
- Earlier data showed CPI close to market expectations (2.5% y/y), the central bank expected a 2.2-3.0% outcome. The BSP stated it would maintain a measure approach to easing, post the data release (per BBG).
- The next central bank meeting is on the Dec 19. Tomorrow delivers unemployment rate figures, but we don't have much in the way of further data releases that will shift sentiment between now and then. The Fed decision comes out the morning of the BSP announcement and could influence BSP thinking. The BSP also noted it sees upside risks for 2025 and 2026 inflation.
Fig 1: USD/PHP Testing 50-day EMA Support
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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