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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessVIEW: ANZ: Much Better Than Feared
ANZ note that “on the back of today’s CPI data and weaker activity indicators we have revised our OCR call. We now expect a 50bp hike in February and two 25bp follow-up hikes taking the OCR to a peak of 5.25%.”
- “CPI inflation remained strong in the December quarter, in line with our expectation, but below the RBNZ’s November forecast.”
- “Encouragingly, non-tradables inflation was flat at 6.6% Y/Y, below our forecast of 6.9%, and the RBNZ’s 7.0% expectation. And core inflation was encouraging as well. CPI ex-food, fuel, and energy did lift to 6.7% Y/Y (6.3% previously), but trimmed mean inflation eased to 6.1% (6.4% previously) and weighted median inflation was unchanged at 5.0%.”
- “Tradables inflation (largely imported) was stronger than expected, but that was thanks in part to a larger increase in international airfares than anticipated, and a smaller fall in petrol prices than implied by weekly fuel price data (small beer from the RBNZ’s perspective). Tradables came in at 8.2% Y/Y (8.1% previously) – a smidgen below the RBNZ’s expectation of 8.3%.”
- “Inflation is clearly still far too strong, but the stabilisation in non-tradables inflation is a welcome development. The inflation numbers clearly weren’t as bad as the RBNZ feared in November, and signs that inflation will ease meaningfully over 2023 are becoming increasingly clear.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.