MNI: US HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES ANNOUNCES HEARING ON SVB, SIG

MNI BRIEF: Canada Feb Teranet Home Price Index Record -11% YOY

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, March 17

MNI DATA FORECASTS: Fed, BOE To Lead

Fed Watch

MNI: US FEB INDUSTRIAL PROD +0.0%; CAP UTIL 78.0%

MNI BRIEF: Fed, Treasury, FDIC-Big Banks Back First Republic

MNI BRIEF: Trudeau Justified Using Emergency Act, Judge Finds

MNI: Canada Boosting Health Spending CAD46.2B Over 10 Years

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI: US HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES ANNOUNCES HEARING ON SVB, SIG

USDCAD TECHS

Pullback Considered Corrective

AUDUSD TECHS

Corrective Cycle

EURJPY TECHS

Corrective Bounce

US

US Voters Support Bank Rescue Measures But Consider It A "Bailout"

USDJPY TECHS

Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
Trending Top 5
Market News Topics

VIEW: UBS Expects RBA Pause If Q4 CPI Below 8% Forecast

AUSTRALIA
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income NewsForeign Exchange News

UBS expects the RBA to tighten one last time in February and then hold if Wednesday’s CPI data print below the central bank’s forecast. It expects it then to signal that a pause is imminent with a change in its language and a downward revision to its inflation forecasts. Chief economist Tharenou notes though that the risk to his forecast stems from wages. If minimum and award wage increases decided in June are linked to inflation, then the RBA could hike again. (The Australian)

  • “We look for their Statement to soften the ‘tightening bias’, to something like ‘The Board expects an increase in interest rates may still be necessary over the period ahead, but the lower CPI outlook provides scope to consider a period of steady rates’”, Mr Tharenou said.
  • Bloomberg has expectations for Q4 CPI at +1.6% q/q and 7.5% y/y (Q3 1.8%/7.3%) with the trimmed mean +1.6% q/q and 6.5% y/y (Q3 1.8%/6.1%) – in line with the RBA’s forecast. December should rise further to 7.7% for the CPI from 7.3% and 5.8% from 5.6% for the trimmed mean.
180 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

UBS expects the RBA to tighten one last time in February and then hold if Wednesday’s CPI data print below the central bank’s forecast. It expects it then to signal that a pause is imminent with a change in its language and a downward revision to its inflation forecasts. Chief economist Tharenou notes though that the risk to his forecast stems from wages. If minimum and award wage increases decided in June are linked to inflation, then the RBA could hike again. (The Australian)

  • “We look for their Statement to soften the ‘tightening bias’, to something like ‘The Board expects an increase in interest rates may still be necessary over the period ahead, but the lower CPI outlook provides scope to consider a period of steady rates’”, Mr Tharenou said.
  • Bloomberg has expectations for Q4 CPI at +1.6% q/q and 7.5% y/y (Q3 1.8%/7.3%) with the trimmed mean +1.6% q/q and 6.5% y/y (Q3 1.8%/6.1%) – in line with the RBA’s forecast. December should rise further to 7.7% for the CPI from 7.3% and 5.8% from 5.6% for the trimmed mean.