Warm Weather and Renewables Help Ease French Strike Disruption

European gas has opened just above the previous close levels today after pulling back from the recent spike from late last week. Warm weather forecasts and healthy wind output in NW and central Europe have helped ease the tight supply concerns due to French strike disruptions. Front month rallied from a low of around 40.6€/MWh last week to a peak of 53€/MWh due to the industrial action in France.

• TTF APR 23 up 2.2% at 45.15€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 up 2% at 46€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 1.7% at 53.06€/MWh
• The French strikes continue to cause LNG cargo delays and diversions with strikes at Dunkerque LNG expected until 17 Mar and another three terminals until 21 Mar. The industrial action continues to limit nuclear power generation although concerns for higher gas demand have eased with the warmer weather and strong renewables generation.
• More moderate gas demand has reduced pressure on European LNG supplies and gas storage withdrawals. European storage is today at 56.37% according to GIE data for 13 Mar compared to the five year average of 35.99%.
• Norwegian imports are today nominated at 324.6mcm/d slightly down from the weekend due to field maintenance. Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today nominated at 42.3mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are 67.2mcm/d.
• Azerbaijan plans to start exporting natural gas to Hungary by the end of the year to help with future European supplies. The country announced plans to export a total of 12bcm of gas to Europe this year.