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Week Ahead (1/2)

UK
  • As with all global markets, the overarching driver of UK markets last week continued to be geopolitics, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and ensuing headlines moving markets. Global STIR markets moving higher (i.e. less rate hikes priced in) but SONIA futures saw less of a move than Eurodollar or Euribor futures. This was partly due to SONIA futures having seen a larger rally the prior week, and partly due to comments from Mann, Saunders and Tenreyro that sounded concerned about inflationary pressures. Note that Mann and Saunders were members who voted for 50bp hikes in February while Tenreyro was the sole dovish dissenter on Omicron concerns in December.
  • Mann and Saunders both spoke Tuesday evening. Mann warned of second round inflation risks and pointed to market expectations for inflation in the UK remaining more persistent than the US or Eurozone. Saunders continues to argue in favour of a quick return of the Bank Rate to a more neutral level. Tenreyro on Wednesday night sounded concerns on inflationary pressures. Although she didn't expect a wage-price spiral in the UK, she noted that the BOE would need to act if inflationary pressures ramped up. She also said that the increase in wages in the BOE Agent's survey was a surprise and something that would have a significant impact if followed through in the official data.
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