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Won Set To Open Higher Ahead Of Data


Forwards indicate a stronger open for the won, 1-month forwards down 1.02 at 1128.20, building on yesterday's gains.

  • After market yesterday the BoK released FX intervention data. The bank said it bought net $11.5b in Q4 with the goal of capping FX market volatility, this follows net zero intervention in Q3. During Q4 USD/KRW fell 9.06%.
  • Trade balance data is due at 0100BST/0900KST, Goldman Sachs are positive on the data: "We expect Korea's seasonally adjusted exports to rise 6.5% mom sa in March, with the momentum accelerating from 3.1% in the previous month, with 20-day data indicating a reflation-led recovery. On a year-on-year basis, exports growth should accelerate sharply in nominal USD terms, from 9.5% in February to +22.0% (Bloomberg consensus: +16.6%). We expect imports growth to accelerate sharply as well to 20.0% yoy from 14.1% last month, driven mostly by higher commodities prices. Implied trade surplus should widen to US$6.2bn from US$2.6bn in the previous month."
  • While exports have been the driver behind the recovery in South Korea, strong consumer confidence data yesterday paints a positive picture of domestic demand. Consumer sentiment data released yesterday indicated optimism for the first time since March 2020.
  • Manufacturing PMI figures are also on the docket today, due at 0130BST/0930KST. Sentiment has likely taken a hit with a pick up in the number of coronavirus cases and tighter restriction measures imposed, but the passage of the latest extra budget should boost the outlook.
  • Markets will also look out for monthly car sales data from automakers, including Hyundai Motor and Kia.

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