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ZEW Boost From 'Improved' Inflation Outlook

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY NOV ZEW SURVEY EXPECTATIONS -36.7 (FCST -51.0); OCT -59.2

GERMANY NOV ZEW CURRENT SITUATION -64.5 (FCST -69.3); OCT -72.2

  • The German ZEW survey recorded a substantial 22.5 rebound in expectations, lifting the index to -36.7, the highest since June. Outlooks still remain in negative territory.
  • The perception of the current situation also saw recovery, albeit less markedly (+7.7 to -64.5).
  • According to the report, improvements were largely on the back of hopes that inflation will fall in the near future and monetary tightening will not be as severe as initially anticipated. Whether this merits the jump in outlooks is uncertain.
  • October recorded a surge in inflation to +11.6% y/y (HICP). With prices yet to see any cooling, German industry will see weak demand and profit margins into year-end.
  • Pessimistic outlooks regarding global demand persist, yet improvements in China's growth outlooks could provide a much-needed boost to the German export industry.

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