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PLN: Zloty Edges Lower, NBP Presser On Radar

PLN

EUR/PLN has edged higher ahead of NBP Governor Glapinski's press conference, which takes place after the MPC left interest rates unchanged, while its statement was leaning to the hawkish side. The pair last deals +44 pips at 4.1956 and bulls look for a clean break above the 50-EMA at 4.2011 before focusing on Feb 4 high of 4.2379. Meanwhile, bears see Feb 27 cycle low of 4.1272 as their initial key target.

  • Most analysts (see our summary here and here) interpreted the latest MPC statement as leaning to the hawkish side, while a bump to the 2026 CPI forecast took some off guard. The Governor may provide more details on the underlying assumptions during today's press conference. As things stand, it does not seem like he is about to significantly soften his hawkish tone.
  • Geopolitics remain a key factor to watch, with market participants assessing the odds of a ceasefire in Ukraine and potential implications for regional security. Prime Minister Tusk was in Ankara yesterday, seeking to strengthen ties with Turkey amid broader efforts to maintain a deterrent against Russia in the light of waning US commitments in Europe.
  • POLGB curve runs marginally steeper, with the 2-3 segment outperforming.
  • The WIG Index sits ~1% higher on the session; WIG20 Index is 1.9% better off.
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EUR/PLN has edged higher ahead of NBP Governor Glapinski's press conference, which takes place after the MPC left interest rates unchanged, while its statement was leaning to the hawkish side. The pair last deals +44 pips at 4.1956 and bulls look for a clean break above the 50-EMA at 4.2011 before focusing on Feb 4 high of 4.2379. Meanwhile, bears see Feb 27 cycle low of 4.1272 as their initial key target.

  • Most analysts (see our summary here and here) interpreted the latest MPC statement as leaning to the hawkish side, while a bump to the 2026 CPI forecast took some off guard. The Governor may provide more details on the underlying assumptions during today's press conference. As things stand, it does not seem like he is about to significantly soften his hawkish tone.
  • Geopolitics remain a key factor to watch, with market participants assessing the odds of a ceasefire in Ukraine and potential implications for regional security. Prime Minister Tusk was in Ankara yesterday, seeking to strengthen ties with Turkey amid broader efforts to maintain a deterrent against Russia in the light of waning US commitments in Europe.
  • POLGB curve runs marginally steeper, with the 2-3 segment outperforming.
  • The WIG Index sits ~1% higher on the session; WIG20 Index is 1.9% better off.