PLN: Zloty Edges Lower, NBP Presser On Radar
EUR/PLN has edged higher ahead of NBP Governor Glapinski's press conference, which takes place after the MPC left interest rates unchanged, while its statement was leaning to the hawkish side. The pair last deals +44 pips at 4.1956 and bulls look for a clean break above the 50-EMA at 4.2011 before focusing on Feb 4 high of 4.2379. Meanwhile, bears see Feb 27 cycle low of 4.1272 as their initial key target.
- Most analysts (see our summary here and here) interpreted the latest MPC statement as leaning to the hawkish side, while a bump to the 2026 CPI forecast took some off guard. The Governor may provide more details on the underlying assumptions during today's press conference. As things stand, it does not seem like he is about to significantly soften his hawkish tone.
- Geopolitics remain a key factor to watch, with market participants assessing the odds of a ceasefire in Ukraine and potential implications for regional security. Prime Minister Tusk was in Ankara yesterday, seeking to strengthen ties with Turkey amid broader efforts to maintain a deterrent against Russia in the light of waning US commitments in Europe.
- POLGB curve runs marginally steeper, with the 2-3 segment outperforming.
- The WIG Index sits ~1% higher on the session; WIG20 Index is 1.9% better off.
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EGBS: Supply Weighing On Major Futures
Heavy sovereign supply has weighed on major EGB futures this morning, with syndications from Italy and the EU being held alongside conventional auctions from the Netherlands (earlier this morning) and Germany (1030GMT).
- A rally in oil prices and digestion of US President Trump’s steel/aluminium tariff announcements (and the latest EU retaliatory threats) will have also factored in.
- Bund futures are -44 ticks at 133.06, flirting with the 50-day EMA at 133.05. However, better support is seen at the Feb 4 low at 132.72, before the 20-dam EMA at 132.53.
- The German cash curve has bear steepened, with yields 3-4bps higher today.
- Little net change in 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds on the day.
- ECB Executive Board member Schnabel participates in a panel appearance this evening (1700GMT). With a light regional data calendar, tariff-related headline flow and Fed Chair Powell’s Senate testimony will be in focus.
GILTS: Lower On The Day, Outperform Bunds, Sizeable Syndi Demand Seen
Gilts hold lower on the day.
- Early pressure stemmed from the burden of heighted government bond supply, an uptick in oil and tariff risks.
- Weakness then extended on some hawkish caveats within BoE hawk-turned-dove Mann’s thinking (after her switch to voting for a 50bp cut last week).
- Books have since closed on the syndicated offering of the new 4.50% Mar-35 gilt, orderbooks topped GBP110bln at the latest count (expect a further update on this), with the spread set at the tight end of the initial guidance range.
- Futures as low as 93.13, before a recovery to 93.25.
- Initial support and resistance (92.50 & 94.35) remain untested, with the short-term bullish technical theme intact.
- Yields little changed to 2.5bp higher, ’25 closing highs in both 2s10s and 5s30s remain intact.
- 10-Year spread to Bunds ~2bp tighter at 207.5bp.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 63bp of cuts through year-end vs. 64bp early today.
- SONIA futures flat to -3.0.
- Comments from BoE Governor Bailey due later (12:15 London).
- Also watch for hedging pressure around the pricing of today’s syndication (timing still to be confirmed).
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Cut-Adjusted SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.401 | -5.3 |
May-25 | 4.197 | -25.7 |
Jun-25 | 4.112 | -34.2 |
Aug-25 | 3.962 | -49.2 |
Sep-25 | 3.923 | -53.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.848 | -60.6 |
Dec-25 | 3.826 | -62.8 |
EURIBOR OPTIONS: EURIBOR FIX - 11/02/25
EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg
- EUR001W 2.6610 -0.0050
- EUR001M 2.6150 -0.0380
- EUR003M 2.5390 0.0130
- EUR006M 2.4810 0.0130
- EUR012M 2.3740 0.0020
