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Zloty Tad Softer, 2022 GDP Growth Marginally Above Expectations


EUR/PLN operates marginally above neutral levels, last +23 pips at PLN4.7089. Gains past Jan 19 high of PLN4.7453 would bring Nov 16 high of PLN4.7848 into play. Bears look for a dip through Jan 4 low of PLN4.6573 before taking aim at Dec 26/Jun 21 lows of PLN4.6270/62.

  • Poland's 2022 economic growth topped expectations, coming in at +4.9% Y/Y versus median estimate of +4.8%. The expansion was slower than in 2021 (+6.8%), as a series of rate hikes and the war in neighbouring Ukraine took their toll. Local sell-side analysts have noted that the data implies a 1.5-1.6% Q/Q drop in private consumption in 4Q2022, which should support the dovish majority in the NBP.
  • PM Morawiecki said that Poland will increase its defence spending to 4% of GDP, more than previously planned, due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
  • POLGBs have retreated and last trade up to 8.8bp cheaper across the curve. WIG20 has shed ~1.2% in morning trade.

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