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AUD/USD Has Typically Fallen Post Recent CPI Prints

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Q4 Australian CPI prints tomorrow. The headline is expected to ease to 1.6% q/q from 1.8% (range of 1.5% to 2.2%). The trimmed mean is forecast at 1.5% q/q, prior 1.8% (range of 1.2% to 1.8%). Y/Y measures are expected to rise, headline to 7.6%, from 7.3% prior, trimmed mean 6.5%, versus 6.1% previously. Y/Y measures for Dec monthly CPI are also expected to rise (headline to 7.7% from 7.3%, trimmed mean 5.8% from 5.6%).

  • Rising utility costs in Q4 are expected to push headline pressures up, although the general consensus is for easing momentum as we progress through 2023.
  • Upside surprises, in contrast to NZ, haven't been as strong over the past 18 months, see the first chart below. There is more modest deviation between actual and expected inflation. See this link for the earlier NZ piece ahead of tomorrow's print.

Fig 1: AU Headline Inflation Versus Expectations

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Q4 Australian CPI prints tomorrow. The headline is expected to ease to 1.6% q/q from 1.8% (range of 1.5% to 2.2%). The trimmed mean is forecast at 1.5% q/q, prior 1.8% (range of 1.2% to 1.8%). Y/Y measures are expected to rise, headline to 7.6%, from 7.3% prior, trimmed mean 6.5%, versus 6.1% previously. Y/Y measures for Dec monthly CPI are also expected to rise (headline to 7.7% from 7.3%, trimmed mean 5.8% from 5.6%).

  • Rising utility costs in Q4 are expected to push headline pressures up, although the general consensus is for easing momentum as we progress through 2023.
  • Upside surprises, in contrast to NZ, haven't been as strong over the past 18 months, see the first chart below. There is more modest deviation between actual and expected inflation. See this link for the earlier NZ piece ahead of tomorrow's print.

Fig 1: AU Headline Inflation Versus Expectations

Keep reading...Show less