MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Argentina Run-Off Election Preview

For only the second time in its political history, Argentina will hold a second-round presidential election run-off on 19 November. In line with the core scenario from MNI’s first round Election Preview, Economy Minister Sergio Massa will face off against libertarian candidate Javier Milei.

While this run-off was largely expected, less so was Massa’s outperformance in the 22 October first round, in which he came top with 36.8%. Milei emerged in second place with 30.0% of the vote. As such, the choice facing Argentinian voters is stark: between Massa – a Peronist who has ramped up social spending and populist tax cuts in the run up to the election but also been at the helm of the country’s economy during a period of triple-digit inflation and rising poverty – and Milei – a hard-line libertarian who has pledged to dollarise the economy, shutter the central bank, and implement a ‘chainsaw’ strategy to eliminate various government departments.

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MNIPOLITICALRISKANALYSIS-ArgentinaRun-OffElectionPreview.pdf