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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Argentina Election Preview

Argentina holds its general election on 22 October, with elections for the presidency and the Congress of the Argentine Nation taking place. The Argentinian economy remains in a state of turmoil, with inflation running at 138% y-o-y in September leading the central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate to 133%, and two in five Argentinians now living below the poverty line.

  • The country’s difficult economic outlook has contributed to this being one of the most open presidential election contests since the introduction of the two-round electoral system in the 1994 constitutional amendment. It has also seen the rise of a non-mainstream candidate in the form of presidential frontrunner, libertarian Javier Milei. His policy platform of major cuts to state spending and the effective dollarisation of the economy would mark a sea-change in Argentinian government policy and, if implemented, would significantly alter the landscape of the country’s economy and society.
In this election preview we outline the voting system for both the presidential and legislative elections, list the presidential candidates and their respective political alliances, put together a chartpack of opinion polling and betting market data in the run-up to the vote, provide our own scenario analysis for the potential outcomes alongside assigned probabilities, and include select comments from sell-side analysts.

Please find full Election Preview PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISKANALYSIS-ArgentinaElectionPreview.pdf

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Political Market NewsPolitical Risk

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