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Empire State Manufacturing Tumbles In Aug

US DATA
  • Very large miss for NY Fed Empire survey, sliding to -31.3 (cons 5.0) in the first of the regional manufacturing surveys for August.
  • It has been particularly volatile of late and had been overly optimistic jumping to +11 in July vs other regional surveys and ISM, but that still stands out, led by sliding new orders.
  • Small consolation will be the bounce in the 6mths ahead measure to +2.1 but that’s only back to the lows of the pandemic for that measure (+1.2 Mar’20).
  • Treasury yields rallied further on the release and despite some retracement from snap reaction lows, are still 4-5bps lower on the day through 2-10y tenors.

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  • Very large miss for NY Fed Empire survey, sliding to -31.3 (cons 5.0) in the first of the regional manufacturing surveys for August.
  • It has been particularly volatile of late and had been overly optimistic jumping to +11 in July vs other regional surveys and ISM, but that still stands out, led by sliding new orders.
  • Small consolation will be the bounce in the 6mths ahead measure to +2.1 but that’s only back to the lows of the pandemic for that measure (+1.2 Mar’20).
  • Treasury yields rallied further on the release and despite some retracement from snap reaction lows, are still 4-5bps lower on the day through 2-10y tenors.