Final June HICP Confirms Sticky Services Narrative

Eurozone final headline HICP confirmed the rounded June flash prints (i.e. to 1dp), at +2.52% Y/Y (vs 2.52% flash, +2.57% in May) and +0.21% M/M (vs +0.21% flash, +0.22% in May). Contributions from all main categories remained largely unchanged compared to May - keeping the overall narrative of sticky services inflation intact for the moment.

• Core inflation on an annual basis printed broadly in line with flash at +2.87% Y/Y (+2.86% flash, +2.87% May) - on a sequential comparison. The M/M to 1dp was revised up by a tenth - but using the unrounded this was only an increase from +0.34% to +0.35% (+0.44% May).
• In terms of the larger countries, Greece, Spain, Croatia saw upwardly revisions to flash HICP by 0.1pp to +2.5%, 3.6%, and 3.5%, respectively. Belgium and Austria meanwhile saw downwardly revisions, both by 0.1pp, to +5.4% and +3.1%.
• The final readings show that contributions to headline HICP were largely unchanged from May for all major categories.
• Services, remained the largest contributor to HICP overall, contributing 1.84pp (1.83pp May). Food, alcohol and tobacco contributed 0.48pp (0.51pp May), energy 0.02pp (0.04pp May), and non-energy industrial goods 0.17pp (0.18pp May).
• Later today, the ECB releases calculations of key underlying inflation metrics, based on the final data, which will form part of the Governing Council's decision making process as it assesses prices pressures going into the July meeting.