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Jobs Report – 0830ET

CANADA DATA
  • Consensus sees solid jobs growth of 21k, even if that looks weak compared to recent months.
  • However, continued strong labour supply increases, on the back of immigration-led population growth, should counter that with the u/e rate ticking up a tenth to 5.1% (0.2pps off series lows seen in July).
  • With the BoC particularly concerned about excess demand persistence, it’s this labour market balance that is worth watching closely.
  • Focus will also be on hourly wage growth with consensus for 5.1% Y/Y from 5.2 after coming in much stronger than expected back in April. It lands on the heels of Wednesday’s ULC report for Q1, which showed an acceleration in Q/Q seasonally adjusted terms to 1.3% non-annualized, exacerbated by declining productivity.

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