MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Focus Turns to 50-day EMA

Price Signal Summary - Gold Focus Turns to 50-day EMA

• S&P E-Minis continue to trade closer to recent highs. The contract traded higher again Monday, reinforcing bullish conditions and this maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Potential is for a climb towards 4204.75 next, the May 31 high and the next key resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish following last week’s gains. The contract has pierced the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. A clear breach of this chart point would signal scope for a climb towards 3774.00 next, Jun 9 high.
• EURUSD has traded higher today and above resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. A clear break would once again resume short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0406. USDJPY is trading lower again today and the move has resulted in a break of support at 131.50, the Jun 16 low. This strengthens current bearish conditions that were confirmed last week, following the break of support at 135.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low. AUDUSD traded higher Monday, but has since faced resistance and is trading lower today and below Monday’s low. The short-term outlook remains bullish and for now, the pullback is considered corrective.
• Gold maintains a firmer tone and has traded higher again today. Current gains are considered corrective and attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $1784.80. WTI futures traded sharply lower Monday. The contract has recently failed to clear the key resistance around the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $100.49. Price has also pierced support at $93.01, the Jul 25 low.
• Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract is also trading higher this week. Fresh gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The S/T outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and fresh highs last week reinforce this set-up. The contract traded higher Monday, starting the week on a firm note. Continued gains highlight an extension of the recent break of resistance at 117.09, Jul 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 1.0406 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0368 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0294 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0275 @ 06:29 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 1.0146/0097 Low Jul 29 / 27 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD has traded higher today and above resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. A clear break would once again resume short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0406. Price remains above support at 1.0097, the Jul 27 low, A resumption of weakness and a breach of 1.0097, would expose parity again and 0.9952, the Jul 14.

GBPUSD TECHS: Extends Gains

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2293 High Aug 01
• PRICE: 1.2252 @ 06:37 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 1.2081/63 20-day EMA / Low Jul 29
• SUP 2: 1.1961 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD extended gains Monday, nearing key resistance at 1.2406. Yesterday’s climb confirmed a break of the 50-day EMA. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and confirms an extension of the bounce off 1.1760, Jul 14 low.The focus is on 1.2332 next, the Jun 27 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2063, the Jul 29 low. A break would signal a possible top.

EURGBP TECHS: Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8492 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8426/65 High Jul 27 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8383 @ 06:41 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 0.8346 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8291 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support

EURGBP is unchanged. The sharp drop in last week reinforces bearish conditions and the latest spell of weakness has also resulted in a print below 0.8367, the May 2 low. An extension lower would open 0.8313 next, the Apr 22 low. The Jul 21 high of 0.8585 has been defined as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8465, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 137.46 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 136.10 Former channel support drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 2: 134.12 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.75 Intraday high
• PRICE: 130.70 @ 06:54 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 130.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 3: 128.64 Low Jun 1
• SUP 4: 127.53 Low May 31

USDJPY is trading lower again today and the move has resulted in a break of support at 131.50, the Jun 16 low. This strengthens current bearish conditions that were confirmed last week, following the break of support at 135.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low. Attention turns to the 130.00 handle and 129.51, Jun 2 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 134.12, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 139.41 High Jul 28
• RES 3: 138.33 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 136.87 Low Jul 8 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 135.23 Intraday high
• PRICE: 134.11 @ 07:02 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 133.93 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1300.72 Low Mar 17

EURJPY is trading lower again and trend conditions remain bearish. Continued weakness reinforces the current bear cycle and marks an extension of last week’s breach of support at 136.87, the Jul 8 low. The break strengthened bearish conditions and has paved the way for a move towards 133.93 next, May 19 low, ahead of 132.66, the May 12 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 136.87.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 1: 0.7047/53 High Aug 1 / 61.8% of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 0.6951 @ 08:00 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 0.6911 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 0.6859 Low Jul 21
• SUP 3: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD traded higher Monday, but has since faced resistance and is trading lower today and below Monday’s low. The short-term outlook remains bullish and for now, the pullback is considered corrective. A resumption of strength, and a break of resistance at 0.7047, yesterday’s high, would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069. Further out there is scope for a climb towards 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. The next support to watch is 0.6911.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135/3201 3.0% High Jul 15 / Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2888/2947 20-day EMA / High Jul 25
• PRICE: 1.2872 @ 08:08 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 1.2767/63 Low Aug 01 / Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 3: 1.2597 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2549 Low Jun 9

USDCAD maintains a bearish theme and Monday’s low print reinforces bearish conditions. A clear break of 1.2819, the Jun 28 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and extend the move below both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This would open 1.2763, the Jun 13 low and 1.2685, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 1.2947, Jul 25 high. A break is required to ease the current bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Fresh Highs

• RES 4: 161.38 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 1: 159.13 Intraday high
• PRICE: 158.60 @ 05:11 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 156.21/153.76 Low Jul 29 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract is also trading higher this week. Fresh gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 159.79 next, the Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, Jul 21 low. A break is required to signal a potential top. Initial support is at 154.75.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Northbound

• RES 4: 130.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 128.520 Intraday high
• PRICE: 128.280 @ 05:16 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 126.450/126.196 Low Jul 28 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 125.525 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 123.010 Low Jun 30

The Bobl futures outlook remains bullish and last week’s gains strengthen current conditions. The contract has traded higher this week and fresh gains confirms a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and the focus is on 129.001 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 124.030, Jul 21 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial support is at Thursday’s 126.450 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.315 Intraday high
• PRICE: 110.245 @ 05:25 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 109.691 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 109.670 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 109.523 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 109.350 Low Jul 22

Schatz futures traded sharply higher last Thursday to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and signals scope for a continuation of the bull cycle. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support is unchanged at 108.950, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is seen at 109.639, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.26 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 119.11 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 118.89 @ Close Aug 1
• SUP 1: 116.70 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 116.52/08 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support

The S/T outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and fresh highs last week reinforce this set-up. The contract traded higher Monday, starting the week on a firm note. Continued gains highlight an extension of the recent break of resistance at 117.09, Jul 6 high. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens 119.26 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support is at 114.08, Jul 8 low. Initial firm support is at 116.52.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Still Climbing

• RES 4: 131.24 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 129.22 0.764 proj of the Jun 14 - Jul 1 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 128.48 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 128.21 @ Close Aug 1
• SUP 1: 126.40 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 122.81/119.57 Low Jul 28 / Low Jul 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

The BTP futures trend condition remained bullish and the contract traded higher again Monday. Recent gains have resulted in a break of key resistance at 126.41, Jul 1 high. The move reinforces conditions for bulls and highlights a broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. This opens 129.22, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 122.81, Jul 28 low. Key trend support is at 119.57.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 3840.00 High Jun 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 1: 3727.00 High Jul 29
• PRICE: 3687.00 @ 05:39 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 3573.10/3467.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3321.30 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg (cont)
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish following last week’s gains. The contract has pierced the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. A clear breach of this chart point would signal scope for a climb towards 3774.00 next, Jun 9 high. On the downside, the key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3573.10, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 2: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4147.25 High Aug 01
• PRICE: 4100.75 @ 06:59 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 3973.76/13.25 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis continue to trade closer to recent highs. The contract traded higher again Monday, reinforcing bullish conditions and this maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Potential is for a climb towards 4204.75 next, the May 31 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial trend support has been defined at 3913.25, the Jul 26 low. A break would highlight a possible early reversal signal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Bearish Reversal

• RES 4: $115.31- High Jun 17
• RES 3: $112.92 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $99.11 @ 07:06 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $96.70 - Low Jul 25 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $94.37/91.22 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures traded lower Monday, extending the pullback from Friday’s $106.50 high. The move lower highlights a failed attempt at breaching the 50-day EMA - a key pivot resistance. The EMA intersects at $103.46. This signals a potential reversal of the bull cycle between Jul 14 - 29, and has exposed support at $96.70, the Jul 25 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case. Key resistance has been defined at $106.50.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Finds Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $101.88 - High Jul 29
• PRICE: $93.82 @ 07:14 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $92.42/88.23 - Low Aug 01 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded sharply lower Monday. The contract has recently failed to clear the key resistance around the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $100.49. Price has also pierced support at $93.01, the Jul 25 low. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and open $88.23, the Jul 14 low and key support. Key resistance has been defined at $101.88, the Jul 29 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1847.9 - High Jun 22
• RES 3: $1825.1 - High Jun 30
• RES 2: $1809.5 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1784.8 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1773.4 @ 08:12 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $1747.7 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27 / 21
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a firmer tone and has traded higher again today. Current gains are considered corrective and attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $1784.80. A break of this average would suggest potential for an extension and expose trendline resistance at $1809.5. A break of the trendline would represent an important technical break. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1711.7, the Jul 27 low. Key support is at $1681.0.

SILVER TECHS: 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.507 - High Aug 1
• PRICE: $20.241 @ 08:19 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $19.062 - Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver maintains a bullish tone and the metal traded higher Monday, through the 50-day EMA at 20.373. The EMA represents a key short-term resistance and a clear break would strengthen the current bull cycle. This would open, $21.540, the Jun 27 high. On the downside, the broader downtrend remains intact and recent gains are still considered corrective. Key support has been defined at $18.146, Jul 14 low and bear trigger.