MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Trump Trades In Play
Price Signal Summary – Stocks Surge With Trump Trade In Play
- S&P E-Minis have recovered from their recent lows. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. Price is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the continuation higher has resulted in a print above the bull trigger at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures are volatile but remain closer to their recent lows. Last week’s move down, resulted in a breach of 4914.00, the Oct 16 low. Note that 4884.06, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle, has also been cleared.
- A sharp sell-off today in EURUSD has resulted in a clear reversal of the recent Oct 23 - Nov 5 correction. The breach of 1.0761, the Oct 23 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.0666. The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The pair has traded above 153.88, the Oct 28 high, to highlight a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and today’s sell-off has reinforced this condition. The pair has traded through support at 0.6537, the Oct 30 low and bear trigger.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including this week’s gains, appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures are trading in a volatile manner but have recovered from their intraday low. The trend direction remains down and the break to a fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. A bearish condition in Gilts remains intact. The contract has recently traded through the 94.00 handle and sights are set on 92.99 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Resumes
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 2: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 1.0832 Low Nov 1
- PRICE: 1.0739 @ 05:54 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 1.0703 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
- SUP 4: 1.0611 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull cycle
A sharp sell-off today in EURUSD has resulted in a clear reversal of the recent Oct 23 - Nov 5 correction. The breach of 1.0761, the Oct 23 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.0666, the Jun 26 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0937, the Nov 5 and today’s intraday high. A clear break of this hurdle is required to highlight a potential reversal.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3048 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3012 @ 16:53 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 1.2844 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 1.2762 Low Aug 13
- SUP 4: 1.2665 Low Aug 8 and key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and today’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and highlights the end of the recent corrective bounce. Sights are on key short-term support and the bear trigger at 1.2844, the Oct 31 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2799, the Aug 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3048, today’s intraday high.
EURGBP TECHS: Reversal Lower Extends
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8499 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 / Oct 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8400/0.8448 High Nov 5 / High Oct 31 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 0.8332 @ 06:37 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 0.8295 20-day EMA / Low Oct 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP is trading lower today as the cross extends the pullback from last week’s high. The move down exposes key short-term support at 0.8295, the Oct 18 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the current downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance and a reversal trigger is at 0.8448, the Oct 31 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 154.33 Intraday high
- PRICE: 153.81 @ 06:10 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 150.93 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 149.21 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 147.35 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 145.92 Low Oct 4
The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The pair has traded above 153.88, the Oct 28 high, to highlight a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 150.93, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would instead signal the start of a short-term corrective cycle. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 149.21.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.69 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 165.28 @ 06:46 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 164.26/163.16 20-and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
The EURJPY trend set-up is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Initial support to watch lies at 164.26, the 20-day EMA. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 168.01, the Jul 26 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence
- RES 4: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6689 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6645 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6643 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 0.6513 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and today’s sell-off has reinforced this condition. The pair has traded through support at 0.6537, the Oct 30 low and bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and sights are set on 0.6490, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would reinforce a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6645, today’s intraday high.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 1.4167 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1
- PRICE: 1.3914 @ 07:33 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 1.3822 20-day EMA and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 1.3731 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD has reversed course and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3822, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Volatile But Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 132.78 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.19/132.65 High Nov 1 / Low Sep 2
- PRICE: 131.24 @ 05:29 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 130.58 Intraday low
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures are trading in a volatile manner but have recovered from their intraday low. The trend direction remains down and the break to a fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, signalling potential for an extension towards 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. next. Initial key resistance is at 132.19, the Nov 1 high. A break of this level would be seen as an early bullish development.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 118.874 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 118.130 @ 05:58 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 117.680 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures last week highlights a strong bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off paves the way for an extension lower near-term and sights are on 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.580, the Sep 3 low and a recent breakout level. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.763 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.670 @ 06:15 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.027 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Despite recent gains, a bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact. The trend is oversold and a move higher is allowing this condition to unwind. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and the short-term bear trigger. Initial support to watch is 106.485, the Nov 5 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 106.763, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear’s Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 97.23 High Oct 22
- RES 3: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 2: 95.79 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 94.73 High Nov 1
- PRICE: 93.34 @ Close Nov 5
- SUP 1: 93.18 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 92.99 2.00 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bearish condition in Gilts remains intact. The contract has recently traded through the 94.00 handle and sights are set on 92.99 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. On the upside, the Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible short-term base. Initial resistance is at 94.73, the Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Reversal Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 119.33 @ Close Nov 5
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.16 Low Sep 2 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 117.70 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures maintains a softer tone, The contract traded sharply lower last week resulting in a breach of 119.97, the Oct 11 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and highlights a possible reversal. The move down has exposed 118.64, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 121.53, the Oct 25 high, where a break is required to cancel the bearish threat. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 5015.00/5106.00 High Oct 21 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 4940.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 4858.00 @ 06:27 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 4815.50 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
- SUP 3: 4746.94 .61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
Eurostoxx 50 futures are volatile but remain closer to their recent lows. Last week’s move down, resulted in a breach of 4914.00, the Oct 16 low. Note that 4884.06, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle, has also been cleared. This exposes 4815.50 next, the 50.0% retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 5015.00, the Oct 29 high, where a break would highlight a reversal. First resistance is 4940.00, today’s intraday high.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Pierces Key Resistance
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5929.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5911.00 @ 07:49 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 5816.41/5724.25 20-day EMA / Low Nov 4
- SUP 2: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 5637.60 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 5600.25 Low Sep 12
S&P E-Minis have recovered from their recent lows. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. Price is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the continuation higher has resulted in a print above the bull trigger at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, a breach of 5724.25 is required to reinstate a bearish threat.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.08 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $74.39 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Despite the latest recovery, a bearish theme remains intact. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose support at $69.68, Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.67 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $70.89 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including this week’s gains, appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would instead refocus attention on the key S/T resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is $72.67, the Nov 5 high.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $2832.8 - 3.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $2749.8/2790.1 - Intraday high / High Oct 31 and bull trigger
- PRICE: $2707.1 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: $2701.6 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2685.6 - High Sep 26 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 3: $2673.3 - Low Oct 17
- SUP 4: $2642.7 - 50-day EMA
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on the $2800.0 handle next. Price has breached support around the 20-day EMA. An extension lower would signal scope for a deeper correction, towards 2642.7, the 50-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $36.050 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.037 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: $31.462 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $30.211 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective - for now. The metal has breached the 20-day EMA and pierced $31.462, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $30.211, a trendline support. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $34.903, the Oct 23 high and bull trigger.