MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1765

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1732 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1708 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1678 High July 19 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1625 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1572 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair trades above the 55-DMA with

immediate pressure on the $1.1765 resistance. Bulls need a close above $1.1765

to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and ease bearish pressure. Above the 55-WMA

($1.1934) remains needed to shift initial focus to $1.1959-1.2053 where 100

($1.1959) & 200 ($1.1980) DMAs are found. Bears now need a close below $1.1678

to gain breathing room and below $1.1625 to return focus to 2018 lows.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3362 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.3330 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1.3302 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 1: $1.3183 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3142 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3113 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 2: $1.3083 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.3050 Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2992 Low July 20

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.2995 support last week lacked follow

through with bulls taking comfort in the recovery Friday. Bulls now look for a

close above $1.3203 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bearish

pressure. The $1.3362 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above this

level to confirm traction above the 55-DMA ($1.3302) and shift initial focus to

$1.3446. The $1.3050 support is key today. Bears need a close below to ease

pressure on the 21-DMA and shift focus back to $1.2955 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Focused On Y108.95-110.42

*RES 4: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.90 Hourly resistance July 20 

*RES 2: Y111.50 Hourly resistance July 23 

*RES 1: Y111.29 Hourly support July 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y110.95 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.74 Hourly support July 23 

*SUP 2: Y110.42 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y110.11 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.95 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs lacked follow through with a bearish key day

reversal followed up with losses that see bearish focus returned to the

Y108.95-110.42 region where key DMAs are located. Bears look for a close below

Y110.75 to confirm breaks of the Y111.22 21-DMA and Y111.04 bull channel base

and add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above Y111.50 to gain

breathing room and above Y111.90 to return focus to Y113.26 where the 200-WMA is

found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y129.83

*RES 4: Y131.88 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.49 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 2: Y131.20 High July 20

*RES 1: Y130.46 Hourly resistance July 23

*PRICE: Y130.13 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.85 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.29 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.40 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.54) last

week. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of

the 55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.58 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

Correcting O/B daily studies are the key concern for bulls and continue to

weigh. The Y129.83 support is key today. Bears need a close below Y129.83 to

initially hint at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.29) to

confirm. Bulls now need a close above Y131.20 to shift focus back to the

200-DMA.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Concern 

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8940 Hourly resistance July 20

*PRICE: Gbp0.8929 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8918 Low July 20 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8896 Hourly support July 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8872 Low July 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs is less than ideal for bulls who are

looking for a close above 2018 highs to initially target Gbp0.9043 Sept 14

highs. The Bollinger top (Gbp0.8933) remains an issue and limits follow through.

The Gbp0.8872 support is key this week. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8872 to

shift focus back to Gbp0.8779-0.8818 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7484 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7442 - High July 16

*PRICE: $0.7422 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7385 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7329 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the

bounce to end the week that returns pressure to the $0.7442-84 resistance

region. Bulls now need a close above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

($0.7477) and hint at a move back to $0.7575-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7575) & 200

($0.7673) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. Bears now need a close

below $0.7385 to ease pressure on resistance layers and return focus to 2018

lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 95.517 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 95.280 - High July 20 

*RES 2: 94.933 - Low July 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: 94.658 - Hourly resistance July 2-0

*PRICE: 94.294 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.176 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.713 - Low July 9

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 13mth highs lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger top Thursday which sees pressure back on 93.713-94.176 where the

55-DMA is noted. Bears now look for a close below 93.713 to confirm traction

below the 55-DMA and bull channel base, initial focus on 92.837-93.193, and hint

at a move back to 100 (92.455) & 200 (92.308) DMAs. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 100-WMA (95.529) to target 96.617.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Back On 2.950

*RES 4: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 3: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 1: 2.921 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 2.891 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.880 - Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 2: 2.860 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 4: 2.807 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the failure to challenge the 2.807 support

last week and the rally and bullish close Friday that sees focus on 2.921-950

where the 55-DMA is this week. Bulls need a close above 2.950 to confirm

traction above 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

Bears now look for a close below 2.880 to gain breathing room and below 2.860 to

pressure the key 2.807 support.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 2: $69.72 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $68.91 - High July 19

*PRICE: $68.16 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $67.52 - Hourly support July 19 

*SUP 2: $67.21 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $66.21 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $65.89 - High June 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the $65.89-66.12

supports with a close below $67.21 now needed to buy bears breathing room.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1245.7 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1234.1 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1232.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1227.1 - Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 2: $1219.6 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 4: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce to end the week after downside follow through

was lacking is less than ideal for bears when combined with daily studies

correcting from O/S and the proximity of the Bollinger base ($1222.0). In saying

that, bulls still need a close above $1236.6 to gain breathing room and above

$1260.2 to return initial focus to $1270.5-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted.

Bears remain focused on $1204.6 while $1236.6 caps.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]