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Free AccessMNI Global Week Ahead: RBA & BOC Meets in Sight
MONDAY
Eurozone Retail Sales: A +0.8% m/m uptick is forecasted for eurozone January retail sales, after the -2.7% m/m slide in December. Slowly recovering consumer confidence in recent months has yet to translate into improved propensity to spend.
US Factory Orders: January US factory orders will likely contract, with -1.5% m/m pencilled in, giving back the +1.8% m/m December uptick which was on the back of the surge in transport orders (largely Boeing’s planes).
TUESDAY
Australia Rate Decision: The RBA is expected to hike rates 25 basis points to a near-11-year high of 3.6% on Tuesday as inflation remains well above target, though softer-than-expected price and growth data will ensure focus on any tweaks to February's hawkish tone.
Germany Factory Orders: A modest +0.3% m/m uptick is pencilled in for German factory orders in January, slowing from +3.2% m/m in December. Note that the December strength was due to large-scale orders, including major military supplies for Ukraine. Orders otherwise contracted into year-end.
WEDNESDAY
Germany Industrial Production / Retail Sales: Consensus expects German industrial production to recover somewhat in January, expanding +1.5% m/m after the -3.1% m/m slump in December. January PMI data remained contractionary, yet moderated for a third month as cost pressures, supply bottlenecks and recessionary fears eased. China’s recent reopening measures are seen as securing a more robust start to 2023 in data to come.
Retail sales are also seen picking up in January, by +2.5% m/m after the stark -5.3% m/m December contraction. Energy bill support will help bolster retail sales going forward, as the high cost of living cuts into household spending appetite.
Eurozone Second GDP Estimate: After German GDP was revised down by to -0.4% q/q there is a strong possibility of the eurozone having stalled in Q4 (versus +0.1% q/q in flash). If other member states report similar downwards revisions, this could push the eurozone economy into contractionary territory in Q4. French and Italian Q4 GDP final prints were unrevised. Focus will be on the detail of the components’ breakdown in the final Q4 GDP data due March 8.
US Trade Balance: The January US trade deficit is projected to deepen by $1.6bln to -$69bln in January.
Canada Interest Rate Decision: The BOC is widely expected to keep rate unchanged at 4.5% as part of its conditional pause. The hawkish implications of a much stronger labour report were somewhat offset by weaker headline CPI and a stronger moderation in core annualised inflation albeit only after an upward revised December print.
THURSDAY
No key data points of interest.
FRIDAY
German Final CPI: Final February data should confirm the upside surprise in German inflation, which accelerated by +1.0% m/m and by +9.3% y/y (vs +9.0% expected) in the harmonised flash print.
UK Monthly GDP / Services / Industrial Production: The January run of UK data is expected to reveal a relatively bleak start to the year, with GDP seen edging up +0.1% m/m after the -0.5% m/m December contraction. IP and manufacturing are projected to be flat. Only services edging up +0.1% m/m after falling -0.8% m/m in December as the FIFA World Cup boost wore off. The February BOE growth forecasts anticipate a -0.3% contraction for Q1.
Canada Labour Force Survey: Canadian unemployment may edge up in the February data, after having held steady near record lows at 5% in January. The labour market remains very tight and closely watched by the BOC for further evidence of building wage pressures.
US Nonfarm Payrolls: The February NFP data has been shifted to a week later due to being a short month. Nonfarm payrolls are seen slowing to a robust +215k in February, after the surprise +517k January jump. This would leave the unemployment rate steady at 3.4%, the lowest in over 53 years.
Payrolls growth in February is typically strong, and will be closely watched ahead of the March 22 FOMC decision following the significant re-pricing higher of rates since January’s bumper payrolls.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
06/03/2023 | 0730/0830 | *** | CH | CPI | |
06/03/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI | |
06/03/2023 | 0930/0930 | ** | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI | |
06/03/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Retail Sales | |
06/03/2023 | 1000/1100 | EU | ECB Lane Lecture at Trinity College | ||
06/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | * | CA | Ivey PMI | |
06/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders | |
06/03/2023 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
06/03/2023 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
07/03/2023 | 0001/0001 | * | UK | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor | |
07/03/2023 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance | |
07/03/2023 | 0330/1430 | *** | AU | RBA Rate Decision | |
07/03/2023 | 0645/0745 | ** | CH | Unemployment | |
07/03/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders | |
07/03/2023 | 0800/0900 | ** | ES | Industrial Production | |
07/03/2023 | 1000/1000 | ** | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
07/03/2023 | - | *** | CN | Trade | |
07/03/2023 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
07/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade | |
07/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | IBD/TIPP Optimism Index | |
07/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | ||
07/03/2023 | 1800/1300 | *** | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result | |
07/03/2023 | 2000/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit | |
08/03/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Industrial Production | |
08/03/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales | |
08/03/2023 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales | |
08/03/2023 | 0930/0930 | UK | BOE Dhingra at Resolution Foundation | ||
08/03/2023 | 1000/1000 | ** | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
08/03/2023 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | GDP (final) | |
08/03/2023 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Employment | |
08/03/2023 | 1000/1100 | EU | ECB Lagarde at Women's Day WTO Event | ||
08/03/2023 | 1000/1100 | EU | ECB Panetta Intro at Euro Cyber Resilience Board | ||
08/03/2023 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
08/03/2023 | 1315/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report | |
08/03/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance | |
08/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | *** | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision | |
08/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level | |
08/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | JOLTS quits Rate | |
08/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | ||
08/03/2023 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
08/03/2023 | 1700/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE | |
08/03/2023 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result | |
08/03/2023 | 1900/1400 | US | Fed Beige Book | ||
09/03/2023 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | CPI | |
09/03/2023 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index | |
09/03/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Private Sector Production | |
09/03/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Jobless Claims | |
09/03/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
09/03/2023 | 1500/1000 | US | Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr | ||
09/03/2023 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks | |
09/03/2023 | 1800/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond | |
09/03/2023 | 1830/1330 | CA | BOC's Rogers "Economic Progress Report" speech | ||
10/03/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | UK | UK Monthly GDP | |
10/03/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | UK | Index of Services | |
10/03/2023 | 0700/0700 | *** | UK | Index of Production | |
10/03/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | UK | Output in the Construction Industry | |
10/03/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | UK | Trade Balance | |
10/03/2023 | 0700/0800 | * | NO | CPI Norway | |
10/03/2023 | 0700/0800 | *** | DE | HICP (f) | |
10/03/2023 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Foreign Trade | |
10/03/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | PPI | |
10/03/2023 | 0900/1000 | EU | ECB Panetta Presentation on Digital Euro | ||
10/03/2023 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey | |
10/03/2023 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report | |
10/03/2023 | 1900/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.