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MNI Payrolls Preview: Labor Supply Seen Limiting Jobs Gains

US DATA

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 380k in April according to the Bloomberg survey median or 400k with the primary dealer median with relatively even dispersion.

  • Average hourly earnings growth is seen unchanged at +0.4% M/M whist the unemployment rate is forecast to fall another tenth to joint pre-pandemic lows of 3.5%.
  • Fresh on the tail of the FOMC, a high bar for non-50bp hikes has been set and there’s still another payrolls report on Jun 3 ahead of the next FOMC on Jun 15, but nuances remain.
  • See the full MNI Preview including previews from 10 sell-side analysts here.
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Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 380k in April according to the Bloomberg survey median or 400k with the primary dealer median with relatively even dispersion.

  • Average hourly earnings growth is seen unchanged at +0.4% M/M whist the unemployment rate is forecast to fall another tenth to joint pre-pandemic lows of 3.5%.
  • Fresh on the tail of the FOMC, a high bar for non-50bp hikes has been set and there’s still another payrolls report on Jun 3 ahead of the next FOMC on Jun 15, but nuances remain.
  • See the full MNI Preview including previews from 10 sell-side analysts here.