MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Falters Ahead Of $1.1898 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2009 May 3 high

*RES 3: $1.1977 May 7 high

*RES 2: $1.1939 May 8 high

*RES 1: $1.1898 May 7 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1850 @1618GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1823/28 Intraday low, 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 

*SUP 2: $1.1790 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556

*SUP 3: $1.1738/45 Dec 15 low, 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1709/17 38.2% of $1.0340-$1.2556, Dec 12 low

*COMMENTARY* The projection target at $1.1828 came under challenge today, a low

of $1.1823 before encountering some oversold hourly conditions. Initial

resistance from the day's previous $1.1870 high has been overcome but the May 7

low at $1.1898 is of more importance above. Will need to climb back through here

before any rally will carry the threat of a decent sized correction. Below

$1.1823 and the 76.4% Fibo level at $1.1790 protects against a deeper fall.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3630 Resistance Currently Keeps The Downside Bias Intact

*RES 4: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3667 May 2 high

*RES 2: $1.3630 May 3 high

*RES 1: $1.3608 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3563 @1625GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3520/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3484/87 May 8, May 4 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3458 Jan 11 low

*SUP 4: $1.3407 1.618 swing of $1.3484-$1.3608

*COMMENTARY* The slowed pace of the decline has allowed a move back within the

lower 2% volatility band and this held the fall on Friday at $1.3487. This level

was challenged again yesterday, a slight break lower to $1.3484, before finding

support again. Meanwhile, resistance from between $1.3565-$1.3593 has gone but

any recovery will only feel the benefit, if a break of $1.3630 can be staged.

Support $1.3530-$1.3520. Below $1.3484 has $1.3458-$1.3407 support next.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  7 Week Support Line Survives A Test On Tuesday

*RES 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y110.40 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 1: Y110.04 May 2 high

*PRICE: Y109.70 @1630GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.02 7 week rising support line

*SUP 3: Y108.83 May 8 low

*SUP 4: Y108.54/65 Apr 24, May 4 lows

*COMMENTARY* The 7 week rising support line survived a test on Tuesday, keeping

recent upside momentum intact for the time being. Furthermore, the Y109.80

resistance level has been under attack for most of the day, the bar to a Y110.04

return. Support rises accordingly, Y109.35 initially, ahead of that support line

at Y109.02 by time today. Directly above Y110.04 and the Y110.24 Fibo retrace

comes back into the picture ahead of the pivotal Y110.84 level.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Falls Shy Of Key Y130.64-Y130.88 Resistance

*RES 4: Y131.36 50% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 3: Y130.86/88 38.2% of Y133.49-Y129.23, May 4 high

*RES 2: Y130.64 Hourly recovery high May 4

*RES 1: Y130.49 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y130.01 @1635GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.55/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.23 May 8 low

*SUP 3: Y128.95 Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: Y128.85 2 year bull channel base 

*COMMENTARY* A low of Y129.23 on Tuesday, just below the swing target at Y129.44

and protecting against a return to the Mar 22 base at Y128.95 and the 2 year

bull channel base projection at Y128.85. Oversold in the near term as a

consequence, the subsequent rally breaking Y130.31 resistance and making a brave

attempt on the higher Y130.64-Y130.88 area. Above the the latter being key to

any lasting recovery. Support rises to Y129.75-Y129.55.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback Heading Towards Test Of Stg0.8719-Stg0.8705

Support

*RES 4: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 3: Stg0.8835/42 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 4 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8810/15 May 8 high, May 4 low

*RES 1: Stg0.8780 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8741 @1643GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8719 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8681-Stg0.8842

*SUP 2: Stg0.8705 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8642

*SUP 3: Stg0.8695 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8673/81 76.4% of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8642, Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Has been unable to sustain the move back into the top half of the 6

month bear channel. A high of Stg0.8842 last week, before succumbing to some

corrective pressure. The loss of Stg0.8761 support yesterday and today the 61.8%

Fibo retrace Stg0.8742, now leaves the Stg0.8719-Stg0.8705 area vulnerable to a

test. Meanwhile, Stg0.8780 provides resistance, Stg0.8810-Stg0.8815 higher.

AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Meets $0.7473 Resistance After Early Fall To $0.7412

*RES 4: $0.7561 May 4 high

*RES 3: $0.7531 Hourly recovery high May 7

*RES 2: $0.7492/93 May 4, May 7 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7473 Intraday high, May 1 low

*PRICE: $0.7457 @1706GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7425 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7412 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $0.7397 2018 weekly bear channel base

*SUP 4: $0.7359 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* A low of $0.7412 so far today, just beneath the swing target at

$0.7419. This the remaining protection to the 2018 weekly bear channel base at

$0.7397. In the meantime, nearest resistance now comes from the May 1 low at

$0.7473 and then the previous basing area at $0.7492-$0.7493. It is however, the

higher $0.7531 level that is currently the key to any better recovery prospects.

Below $0.7397 and last May's $0.7333 low becomes the next focus.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Sharp Pullback Becoming Oversold Ahead $1.2818-$1.2803

*RES 4: $1.2998/04 May 8 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2975 Intraday high

*RES 2: $1.2941 Initial pullback low May 8, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2900 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2840 @1718GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2818 38.2% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998

*SUP 2: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows 

*SUP 3: $1.2763 50% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998

*SUP 4: $1.2737 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* A brief spike through key resistance at $1.2984 was abruptly halted

by the upper 1% volatility band at $1.2998 on Tuesday. The subsequent pullback

has lost support from the former highs of $1.2918-$1.2914 and then Tuesday's

$1.2876 low today. This has upset recent upside momentum, putting

$1.2840-$1.2836 back under pressure. Becoming heavily oversold in the near term

ahead of key $1.2818-$1.2803 support. Resistance now $1.2900-$1.2941.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4

*RES 4: $1341.5 Base of broken 10 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1313.0 @1722GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.4/1.7 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, May 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1282.2 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1341.5

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,

suggests a test of the year's previous $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at

$1301.4. In the meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]