MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1.1589

*RES 4: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 3: $1.1744 High July 17

*RES 2: $1.1715 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1675 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1613 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: $1.1562 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1716) remains lacking and sees

immediate pressure back on the $1.1589 support. Bears need a close below this

level to confirm a break of the bull channel base ($1.1600) and focus on retests

of 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1450) &

200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to

confirm traction above the 55-DMA and ease bearish pressure. Above the 55-WMA

($1.1927) remains needed to shift initial focus to $1.1971-1.2053 where 100

($1.1971) & 200 ($1.1980) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: Flirting With Key Support

*RES 4: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 3: $1.3198 Hourly resistance July 17a 

*RES 2: $1.3125 Hourly resistance July 17 

*RES 1: $1.3083 Hourly resistance July 18 & 19

*PRICE: $1.3006 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2849 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 2: $1.2777 Monthly Low Aug 24 

*SUP 3: $1.2587 Monthly Low June 21 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.2581 Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble the 55-DMA ($1.3317) and the key $1.3662

resistance resulted in a sharp sell-off Tuesday followed up by a break of the

key $1.2995 support and fresh 2018 & 11mth lows continuing. Bears look for a

close below $1.2995 to target $1.2587 June 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are

building and weighing. Bulls need a close above $1.3125 to gain breathing room.

A close above the key $1.3362 resistance remains needed to confirm a break of

the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $1.3446.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y112.17

*RES 4: Y114.72 Monthly High Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 1: Y113.26 200-WMA

*PRICE: Y112.92 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.55 High July 16 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs continue with bulls currently focused on the

Y113.24-74 region where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located, although the

lack of follow through is less than ideal given O/B daily studies and the

Bollinger top (Y113.25) noted as key concerns. Bears now need a close below

Y112.17 to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to

Y109.95-111.12 where key DMAs and the bull channel base (Y110.88) off 2018 lows

are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Capping

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24 now resistance

*RES 3: Y132.38 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y131.90 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.77 Hourly resistance July 18

*PRICE: Y131.12 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.86 Low July 18 

*SUP 2: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y130.27 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-WMA (Y131.54). Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-WMA

and target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B daily

studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.38) limiting follow

through are key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y130.64 to

shift initial focus back to Y129.83. Below Y129.83 hints at a move back to

Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.28) to confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 2018 Highs In The Sights 

*RES 4: Gbp0.9043 High Sept 14 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 High Nov 15 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8920 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8896 Hourly support July 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8872 Low July 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8814 Low July 16

*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below the 21 (Gbp0.8839) & 200 (Gbp0.8818) DMAs

lacked follow through Monday with bulls taking comfort in the bounce which

continues to result in continued fresh 4mth highs. Immediate focus is now on the

Gbp0.8967 2018 high. Bulls look for a close above 2018 highs to initially target

Gbp0.9043 Sept 14 highs. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8872 to shift

focus back to Gbp0.8779-0.8839 where key DMAs are situated.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.3268 Resistance Confirms Significance

*RES 4: $1.3579 - Daily Bull channel top (B) 

*RES 3: $1.3533 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.3384 - Monthly High June 27 

*RES 1: $1.3268 - High June 29

*PRICE: $1.3218 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3161 - Hourly support July 19

*SUP 2: $1.3110 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 3: $1.3067 - Low July 9

*SUP 4: $1.3043 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on previous hesitation around the 21-DMA

($1.3206) with the pair bouncing from the bull channel base off Apr lows and

reconfirming its significance. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3268

to shift initial focus to $1.3384 June highs and overall focus to $1.3533-79

where daily bull channel tops are noted. Bears need a close below $1.3161 to

gain breathing room and return focus to layers of support $1.3043-1.3110 where

the 55-DMA and a bull channel base are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 3: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7442 - High July 16

*RES 1: $0.7391 - Hourly support July 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7357 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of the $0.7442-59 resistance region

ensures focus remains on 2018 lows. Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh

leg lower with a close below $0.7308 still needed to shift focus to tests of

$0.7142 2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7459 to gain

breathing room. A close above $0.7484 remains needed to confirm a break of the

55-DMA ($0.7481) and hint at a move back to $0.7582-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7582) &

200 ($0.7678) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1233.9 - 200-WMA 

*RES 1: $1229.2 - High July 18

*PRICE: $1218.0 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1214.0 - Low July 12 2017 

*SUP 2: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 3: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1180.7 - Weekly Low Jan 27 2017

*COMMENTARY: Flirtation with the LT rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and

pressure on the 200-WMA have taken their toll with gold gaining traction below

the 200-WMA and bears focused on $1204.6 July 2017 lows. The Bollinger base

($1223.1) is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.

Bulls now need a close above $1236.6 to gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to

return initial focus to $1271.3-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]