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Morning Summary: CPI Inflation Surged By 3.1% In April

CZECHIA
  • Covid cases continue to gradually decrease with the 7D SMA of daily new cases dropping to 1,500 (and down from 12,300 from its early March highs). As a result, Czech government continues to ease pandemic restrictions, reopening shops and services after 4 months of lockdown. Czech government may open hotels and guests houses and allow indoor cultural events with as many as 500 people in the audience starting May 24.
  • Based on the latest sell-side estimates, Czech inflation is expected to average 2.3% in Q2 and Q3 2021 and 2.5% in Q4.
  • This morning, economic data showed that April inflation rose more than expected by 3.1% (vs. 2.7% exp.), up from 2.3% the previous month. We have seen that sell-side institutions and central banks have significantly underestimated the rise in consumer prices in the CEE region, which could increase policymakers' concerns over rising inflationary pressures.
  • CNB will comment on inflation at 12pm (London time).
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