### POV: The ECB is set to end asset............>

ECB: ### POV: The ECB is set to end asset purchases at the December meeting.

There is a very high bar to rowing back at this stage given the signalling cost

of doing so. However, the economic outlook has deteriorated and there are

downside risks to inflation in light of the drop in oil prices. As such, this is

likely to be a dovish end to asset purchases with the ECB articulating a

commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy stance. 

* Hawkish surprise: No downgrade to the growth and inflation forecasts in the

staff macroeconomic projections, a hawkish adjustment to the forward guidance

for rate rises, or outlining a limited timetable for reinvestments (2 years or

less).

* Neutral: Ending asset purchases, providing a vague update on the reinvestment

policy (not committing to a time-dependent reinvestment strategy) and

maintaining the current forward guidance on policy rates ("at their present

levels at least through the summer of 2019..").

* Dovish: An open-ended commitment to reinvestment, or even delaying the end of

asset purchases. A significant downgrade to the macro forecasts, esp. for 2021.