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POWER: Nordic Dec Could Edge Down, But May Be Supported By Drier Outlook

POWER
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Nordic front month power base load could edge lower today – once trading begins –  amid losses in neighbouring EU power markets owing to price declines in emissions and TTF. The contract could be supported, however, due to a weakened hydro balance in Norway and Sweden.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 closed down 2.8% at 46.15 EUR/MWh on 5 Nov
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 0.9% at 82.75 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 1.8% at 86.75 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 2.2% at 62.89 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1.7% at 39.79 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was revised down on 20 Nov by around 700GWh and is expected to end +3.70TWh on that day from +4.45TWh in the previous forecast for the same period.
  • Sweden’s balance is expected slightly lower on the day and is now anticipated at +1.94TWh on 20 Nov from +2.23TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are still expected to be above the 30-year norm across the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts. But temperatures are estimated to reach as low as 2.79C on 15 Nov – in line with the seasonal average but dropping from a high of 5.89C on 7 Nov.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 88% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day, with 10 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at 0.962GW on 7 Nov, edging down from 1.08GW anticipated on 6 Nov – which could support power prices from the previous session. Wind will then fall to 0.748GW on 8 Nov – likely further supporting prices.
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Nordic front month power base load could edge lower today – once trading begins –  amid losses in neighbouring EU power markets owing to price declines in emissions and TTF. The contract could be supported, however, due to a weakened hydro balance in Norway and Sweden.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 closed down 2.8% at 46.15 EUR/MWh on 5 Nov
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 0.9% at 82.75 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 1.8% at 86.75 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 2.2% at 62.89 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1.7% at 39.79 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was revised down on 20 Nov by around 700GWh and is expected to end +3.70TWh on that day from +4.45TWh in the previous forecast for the same period.
  • Sweden’s balance is expected slightly lower on the day and is now anticipated at +1.94TWh on 20 Nov from +2.23TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are still expected to be above the 30-year norm across the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts. But temperatures are estimated to reach as low as 2.79C on 15 Nov – in line with the seasonal average but dropping from a high of 5.89C on 7 Nov.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 88% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day, with 10 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at 0.962GW on 7 Nov, edging down from 1.08GW anticipated on 6 Nov – which could support power prices from the previous session. Wind will then fall to 0.748GW on 8 Nov – likely further supporting prices.