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Stronger with JGBS But Awaiting Data Deluge Next Week

AUSSIE BONDS

With no local data, ACGBs tentatively push above morning ranges (YM -1.0 and XM +2.5) as JGBs firm slightly on Ueda’s initial comments. Cash ACGB curve holds its flattening with the 3-year flat and the 10-year 3bp richer, after the AOFM’s successful sale of A$600mn of ACGB Nov-29.

  • 3s10s swaps curve flattening at 3bp as swaps reverse.
  • Bills sit flat to +3 through the reds, after recoiling from ’23 lows set before WPI data mid-week.
  • RBA-dated OIS is little changed from yesterday’s close with a 95% chance of a 25bp hike priced for the March meeting and terminal rate pricing around ~4.28%.
  • Outside of guidance from JGBs, the market appears destined to tread water ahead of the Aussie data deluge next week which crescendos with Wednesday’s release of Q4 GDP.
  • The AOFM will issue the standard A$1.5bn of ACGBs next week, split between A$300mn of ACGB May-47 on Monday & A$1.2bn of Nov-32 on Wednesday.
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