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AUSSIE-KIWI: Thursday saw Credit Agricole recommend buying AUD/NZD at NZ$1.0748,
with a stop at NZ$1.0590, targeting a move to NZ$1.1050, which is around their
estimate of fair value.
- Credit Agricole noted that "the NZD has strengthened on the back of strong New
Zealand labour market data and the RBNZ's moving to a neutral bias. Improving
risk sentiment has also helped the NZD. We think that the currency has gone too
far, however, especially against the equally risk-sensitive AUD. According to
our models, the AUD/NZD cross has become significantly undervalued. While the
RBNZ has moved to a neutral bias, we note that the RBA maintains a modest
tightening bias and is closer to raising rates. The RBA is also more upbeat on
its economic outlook than the RBNZ, something that could become clearer with the
release of the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday."